Archive for the ‘Trump, Donald’ Category

Trump: Inspired by the 1972 Cuban Olympic boxing team?

February 2, 2017

The AP calls it “unsettling” …   “governing-by-upheaval” to recast the role of government.

A historian says that Trump’s style is a mixture:  “a whiff of Reaganism”  with “plays reminiscent of Richard Nixon”,

My take: President Trump’s 1st week in office calls for a reprise of a HomaFiles post from August 2015 … slightly ahead of its time !

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Many of you may be too young to have witnessed and remember, but…

In the 1972 Olympics, the polished U.S. boxing team was predicted to sweep the competition.

But, something happened on the way to the medals’ platform that shocked the sporting world.

image

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Here’s the story and why Trump’s first days in office jogged my memory of the 1972 Olympics …

(more…)

Reuters: Plurality favors the travel ban …

February 1, 2017

But, you have to read beneath the headline !

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Reuters issued one of the 1st polls on attitudes towards Trump’s travel ban on people from President Obama’s list of 7 terrorist hotspots: Iraq, Iran, Syria, Somalia, Sudan, Libya, and Yemen.

The headline:

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Of course, we hate to get picky, but if you add together “make you safer” and “keep you safe”, the headline would read “majority think travel plan keeps America safe (or safer)”

But, that doesn’t fit the narrative, I guess.

Here’s the bigger story (that should have been in the headline).

(more…)

A Inauguration Day irony …

January 20, 2017

Comey probably did cost the Dems the White House …

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Here’s something for Dems to ponder on inauguration day.

My theory of the case from the get-go was that

(1) Hillary did break the law by grossly (and intentionally) mishandling classified information

(2) There was both harm & foul … i.e. foreign agents hacked the info.

(3) Comey brushed past the intent  (which wasn’t really required for criminality) and the harm of the foul … because he didn’t want to go down in history as the brutish guy who stopped the first woman from being elected president.

 

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Here’s the irony for the Dems ….

(more…)

About the alleged Russian email hack …

December 19, 2016

Some key points are being overlooked.

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Fueled by a “secret CIA assessment”, election-deniers are having a field day blaming Queen Hillary’s loss on the Russians.

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Beyond the hypocrisy of their post-debate-3 hyperventilation over Trump’s refusal to commit to accepting the election results if they seemed tainted, the deniers seem to be overlooking a couple of key points.

(more…)

Trump slammed for skipping daily security briefings …

December 12, 2016

Flashback: Current POTUS skips more than half of his (while President).

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The MSM is blasting President-elect Trump for not having security briefings every day.

Keep in mind that Trump is President-elect, not President.

So, the briefings can be a learning experience, but there’s nothing actionable that he can do until January 20.

Putting that fact aside …

Flashback to a study done by Government Accountability Institute re: Obama’s briefing practices.

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At the time, security folks were concerned that Obama was frequently skipping his Presidential Daily Briefings (PDBs).

Here’s what the GAI found …

(more…)

Did data analytics miss the forest for the trees?

November 17, 2016

Team Clinton’s GOTV effort got out a lot of votes … for Trump

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huffpost-big-data-clinton

According to the Huffington Post:

As the post-election day hangover wears off, an examination of the mechanics behind the Clinton’s get out the vote efforts ― reaching out to Clinton voters in key states at the door, on the phone or by text messages ― reveals evidence of what appears to be a pretty shocking truth.

Clinton volunteers were inadvertently turning out Trump voters.

Possibly in significant numbers.

What went wrong? (more…)

Flashback: Revenge of the unintelligensia?

November 11, 2016

Will “uneducated” voters determine the 2016 Presidential election?

Originally posted July 20, 2016

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The most recent Washington Post poll – showing Hillary leading Donald by a couple of points — provides some very interesting drill down data … it’s worth some browsing time.

Buried in the numbers is some interesting data…..

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MSM headlines frequently stereotype Trump’s supporters as non-college degreed whites … and often, the label is shorthanded as a more pejorative “uneducated”, i.e. mind-numbed dummies.

According to the WaPo poll, it’s true that Trump is favored by “white non-college” almost 2-to-1 … 60% to 33%

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No surprise there …

But, here are some findings that did surprise me a bit since they never gets spotlighted in the mainstream media…

(more…)

Flashback: Trump’s appeal among the “precariat”…

November 10, 2016

And, there are over 100 million of them.

Originally posted March 1, 2016

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From a very interesting election analysis in the Orange County Register by Joel Kotkin – Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University …

Disclaimer: I’m not a Trump fan because of his incivility (bad role model for kids), unpredictability (I have no idea where he really stands on any issue except “the wall” – and I’m betting the under on that one), and temperament (though I wonder why the U.S. should be the only country that doesn’t have a wild man with their finger on the nuclear button – why not round out the roster?).

That said, I’ll fill in his circle on the scantron ballot if it’s Trump vs. Hillary in Novemeber.

Why?

I have much sympathy for his constituency of victims: lower and middle class working class folks … with emphasis on “working”.

You know,  the folks that the press likes to brutally characterize as “brain dead, mindless zombies”.

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In his article, Mr. Kotkin more charitably coins them as the “precariat” — people who are working, many part time or on short-term gigs, but lacking long-term security.

(more…)

Flashback: Was Trump inspired by the 1972 Cuban Olympic boxing team?

November 9, 2016

Originally posted August 19, 2015 … a bit ahead of its time.

=========

Many of you may be too young to have witnessed and remember, but…

In the 1972 Olympics, the polished U.S. boxing team was predicted to sweep the competition.

But, something happened on the way to the medals’ platform that shocked the sporting world.

image

======

Here’s the story and why Trump jogged my memory of the 1972 Olympics …

(more…)

Man against machine … Man wins !

November 9, 2016

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#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

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NY Times: FBI clears Trump of Russian ties …

November 1, 2016

… and, says Russian hacking intended to disrupt election, not boost Trump

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Trying to shift attention off Weiner’s email stash, Team Clinton started flashing the Russian shiny object yesterday:

You know, Trump and Putin are in collusion.

Well, even the Dem newspaper of record – the NY Times – concedes that there’s no “there” there.

image

Here’s the relevant snippet from the Times article …

(more…)

Psst: Did you catch what Trump said about Amazon?

October 27, 2016

During the preamble to his Gettysburg Address …

Trump lashed out at his “accusers” and said he was going to sue them.

Said he’ wouldn’t allow the AT&T – Time Warner deal to get approved … because of a concentration of power.

Of course, his opposition was not because CNN is a part of the deal.

 

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 I haven’t seen press mentions of a 3rd Trump lash out …

(more…)

Game on: Debate shines a light on another disgusting tape.

October 10, 2016

This one has been hiding in plain sight for a long time.

I’d been wondering why this tape has largely gone unnoticed by folks.

Maybe, because it’s damning to Hillary, not Donald?

Well, it’s likely to get noticed now.

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In one of his tirades about Clintonian women abuse, Trump landed a body blow:

“One of the women, who is a wonderful woman, at 12 years old, was raped at 12,” Trump said. “Her client she (Clinton) represented got him off, and she’s heard laughing (on tape) on two separate occasions, laughing at the girl who was raped.”

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According to the Washington Post

The attack on Clinton has less to do with the fact that she defended an accused rapist and more to do with how she did it and what she said about the case later

Specifically, it focuses on her efforts to attack the girl’s credibility and allegations that she spoke callously about getting the man a reduced charge, despite appearing to suggest he had been guilty.

The attack plays into twin allegations about Clinton’s character:

1) That she lacks a moral compass and will do whatever is advantageous to her, and

2) That she’s a hypocrite who says one thing today about sexual assault but did the opposite decades ago.

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Here are few more snippets from the Washington Post’s recap of the story …

(more…)

NY Times Bombshell: Trump had a tax loss carryforward … disqualifying?

October 3, 2016

 P.S. Hillary had one, too (but the NYT missed that one).

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This would be laughable except it will probably gain more traction with the MSM than Miss Piggy.

Here’s the “smoking gun”:

The New York Times obtained records from 1995 showing that Donald J. Trump declared a $916 million loss.

The figure is so substantial that it could have allowed him to legally avoid paying federal income tax for 18 years.

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Let’s unpack this journalistic gem …

(more…)

Stop saying “Don’t grade Trump on a curve”

September 29, 2016

My objection is technical, not political,

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The phrase “don’t grade him on a curve” has now eclipsed “It’s not who we are” as my absolute least favorite.

Folks who are saying it (think, Clinton supporters) are inadvertently flaunting their ignorance (which makes for great irony).

Speaking as a card-carrying academic, my objection is strictly technical.

 

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Let’s get basic.  What does it mean to grade on a curve?

(more…)

“I ain’t going down no more”

September 28, 2016

Now, will Trump draw inspiration from Rocky?

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The debate reminded me of the classic clip from the first Rocky movie.

In the flick, Apollo Creed –- fighting within the Marquess of Queensberry Rules — was pummeling Rocky … round after round after round.

With little time left in the fight, Rocky uttered those memorable words:

“I ain’t going down no more”

Then, he came out of his corner like a bull and changed the trajectory of the fight.

 

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click to view the memorable clip   <= worth watching

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My view:

Clinton pummeled Trump, but she didn’t knock him out.

Trump landed a few strong punches.

Trump lives to fight another a day.

He’s a fighter.

Let’s see if Trump pulls a Rocky.

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P.S.  I recollect that Rocky won the re-match and took Creed’s title … hmmm.

click to view the memorable clip

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#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

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Update: Visceral vs. cerebral … who won the debate?

September 27, 2016

More overnite numbers ….

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Great recap in the Daily Mail … worth browsing – lots of polls.

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Left-leaning pundits — especially Hillary’s surrogates — are apoplectic on TV today.

“Is the American electorate that stupid?”

Which is worse, stupid or irredeemably deplorable?

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Great tweet from Michael Moore to his left-leaning pals:

 

debate-mike-moore

This is way more fun than I expected I to be

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Here’s the original post from this morning … just in case you missed it.

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First, my overall take:

Hillary was very well prepped, got all of her talking points in and stayed on offense.

Trump wasted too much time defending himself, didn’t hammer the email scandal and didn’t even raise pay-to-play, Benghazi or “deplorables”.

Holt nibbled at Trump all night, but gave Trump the most important gift: making the first 15 minutes about the economy.

Takeaway from that segment – which pundits pre-argued would be determining – was that Trump will be aggressive on saving jobs and Clinton will create tax payer funded green energy jobs.

Advantage: Trump.

Clinton’s biggest score (with a boost from Holt):  birther issue “proves” that Trump is a racist.

Trump’s biggest scores: “why haven’t you done any of this in the past 30 years?” and firmly headlined  “law & order”.

Both demonstrated why they’re the most disliked candidates ever.

OK, now for the numbers which, frankly, surprised me ….

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From left to right:

Time scored it a 50-50 draw.

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CBS scores it Trump 76%, Clinton 24%

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CNBC scores it 61 to 39 Trump.

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And, far right-leaning Drudge has it Trump 80, Clinton 20

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Team Clinton must be pulling their hair out this morning.

There isn’t much else that Hillary could have done – she was locked & loaded.

Maybe there’s something in her message … or her character … or that smirky “I’m smarter than you” smile that she kept flashing.

Bottom line: Pundits will dismiss the internet polls and score it heavily for Hillary …  but Donald gets to crow about the overnite results and lives to fight another day.

My question: what ammo does Hillary have left for the next debate?

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P.S. Yesterday’s post is worth re-reading:
Trump: Inspired by the 1972 Cuban Olympic boxing team?

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#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

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Visceral vs. cerebral … who won the debate?

September 27, 2016

Here are the overnite numbers ….

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First, my overall take:

Hillary was very well prepped, got all of her talking points in and stayed on offense.

Trump wasted too much time defending himself, didn’t hammer the email scandal and didn’t even raise pay-to-play, Benghazi or “deplorables”.

Holt nibbled at Trump all night, but gave Trump the most important gift: making the first 15 minutes about the economy.

Takeaway from that segment – which pundits pre-argued would be determining – was that Trump will be aggressive on saving jobs and Clinton will create tax payer funded green energy jobs.

Advantage: Trump.

Clinton’s biggest score (with a boost from Holt):  birther issue “proves” that Trump is a racist.

Trump’s biggest scores: “why haven’t you done any of this in the past 30 years?” and firmly headlined  “law & order”.

Both demonstrated why they’re the most disliked candidates ever.

OK, now for the numbers which, frankly, surprised me ….

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From left to right:

Time scored it a 50-50 draw.

image

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CBS scores it Trump 76%, Clinton 24%

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CNBC scores it 61 to 39 Trump.

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And, far right-leaning Drudge has it Trump 80, Clinton 20

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Team Clinton must be pulling their hair out this morning.

There isn’t much else that Hillary could have done – she was locked & loaded.

Maybe there’s something in her message … or her character … or that smirky “I’m smarter than you” smile that she kept flashing.

Bottom line: Pundits will dismiss the internet polls and score it heavily for Hillary …  but Donald gets to crow about the overnite results and lives to fight another day.

My question: what ammo does Hillary have left for the next debate?

==========

P.S. Yesterday’s post is worth re-reading:
Trump: Inspired by the 1972 Cuban Olympic boxing team?

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#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

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Trump: Inspired by the 1972 Cuban Olympic boxing team?

September 26, 2016

Since the 1st presidential debate is tonite, I thought it would be timely to reprise a post from a couple of months ago.

Read it … and keep it in mind when the contenders spar tonite.

=====

Many of you may be too young to have witnessed and remember, but…

In the 1972 Olympics, the polished U.S. boxing team was predicted to sweep the competition.

But, something happened on the way to the medals’ platform that shocked the sporting world.

image

======

Here’s the story and why Trump jogged my memory of the 1972 Olympics …

(more…)

Trumpspeak: It’s all about the way he talks …

September 23, 2016

Since the debate is coming up, it’s time to pull from the archives ….

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Great piece in the Washington Post by Barton Swaim author of “The Speechwriter: A Brief Education in Politics.”

His basic conclusion: “The most distinctive about Trump … is the structure of his language.”

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Swain says that Trump — nnlike most politicians –doesn’t speak in political rhetoric; he speaks in punchlines – short jabs, not convoluted passages.

(more…)

Hillary Clinton: fashion icon … say, what?

September 19, 2016

An article in this weekend’s Washington Post made me belly-laugh …. and gives me a chance to dig a tidbit out of the archives.

Here’s the headline:

hillary-fashion-icon
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According to WaPo:

The Democratic presidential nominee is, by no means, the typical fashion icon, not in the manner of an actress, a musician or even First Lady Michelle Obama.

But it is hard to deny her influence, whether direct or indirect — on so many designers.

Really?

Reminded me of  a post by Scott Adams — Dilbert’s author — on his Dilbert blog

(more…)

But he told Howard Stern …

September 9, 2016

One of the sillier aspects of the campaign is Clinton trying to neutralize her yes vote for the Iraq War by using the schoolyard tactic: “Well, he did it first.”

Her evidence: “Trump told Howard Stern …”

Say, what?

And, the MSM is running with the gotcha as a headline story:

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Just for the entertainment value, let’s unpack this story …

(more…)

Trump needs a debate coach …

August 31, 2016

My nomination: Dennis Miller.

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NY Times ran a piece contrasting Donald’s and Hillary’s debate prep:

Hillary Clinton Piles Up Research in Bid to Needle Donald Trump at First Debate

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Predictably, the Times slams Trump for a refusal to wade through policy books or practice mock debates.

Hillary, though, is disciplined, studious and advice-seeking.

She’s consulting with psychologists “preparing ways for her to unnerve Mr. Trump and provoke him to rant and rave.”

They conclude that Trump’s hot buttons are: his intellect, his net worth and his image as a successful businessman.

Easy picking, right?

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So, how can Trump possibly win a debate against her?

(more…)

Isn’t an “exit tax” kinda like a wall?

August 19, 2016

Watching the Olympics last night, I was sneak-exposed to a Hillary jobs ad.

The 3 point plan: (1) make everybody pay a fair share – where, of course,  ‘everybody’ is shorthand for ‘somebody who is not you, so cheer’ (2) ‘invest’ in infrastructure – where ‘invest’ means overspend on poorly managed government projects using Cadillac-planned union workers and (3) institute an “exit tax” to keep companies from leaving the U.S.

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It was the exit tax that caught my eye … partially due to the ads placement in the Olympics and because Trump gave his economic speech a few hours earlier.

Here’s why …

(more…)

Is Trump dumb as skunk … sly as a fox?

August 12, 2016

Checking today’s polls …

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This week, Trump gave a pretty good speech on his economic plan (<= my opinion) … and a mellow, favorably-reviewed speech to a homebuilders trade association.

But, he got blasted in the mainstream media for rallying 2nd amendment supporters (“obviously inciting violence against Hillary”) … and for referring to Obama & Clinton as founders of ISIS (since BHO pulled ALL troops from Iraq – leaving a hole that ISIS filled).

Here’s the ironic twist:

Trump started the week down 7.7 points on the RCP poll-of-polls.

Today, he’s down 6.3 … still a big number, but 1.4 better than the week started.

 

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Of course, there were other forces at work: the typical dissipation of Hillary’s post-convention bounce … and, oh yeah, the email – Clinton Foundation thing …  she got caught with her hand in the cooking jar again.

Still, I wonder: was it the mainstream media that took the bait this time?

Blasting Trump, they spotlighted terror and gun rights … two of Trump’s strong suits.

Hmmm.

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#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

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How many people watched the convention speeches?

August 11, 2016

It’s no secret that only about half of the U.S.  Voting Age Population (VAP) turns out to vote … and that the vast the majority of Americans are poorly (or narrowly) informed on political issues.

These days, pollsters are saying that a high percentage of Americans have a high level of interest in the 2016 Presidential race.

I got into a friendly debate re: whether “interest”  is a valid proxy measure for “informed”.

My POV: nope.

For example, how many people were interested enough to watch the Trump & Clinton acceptance speeches at their conventions?

elction cartoon - who not voting for
Here’s the answer …

(more…)

Is America becoming an “kakistocracy”?

August 9, 2016

Brutal op piece by Peggy Nooman in the WSJ last Friday.

The title tells most of the story: “The Week They Decided Donald Trump Was Crazy”.

The evidence: his taking the Khan bait and dissing Ryan and McCain.

“People started to become convinced he was nuts, a total flake.”

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That’s all that most folks will take from the article.

But, there was an important twist that most folks will miss or dismiss.

(more…)

WashPost deals Trump a turnaround card …

August 8, 2016

I can’t believe my eyes.

I’ve oft opined that the Washington Post is most biased of the Clinton-supportive print media.

Stories of the Post’s 30-person Trump attack team are widespread and not denied by the paper.

So, imagine my surprise when I saw the headline:

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The article is a thorough investigative story — not an opinion piece.

Here’s the short version of the story …

(more…)

Reuters: Trump still has a pulse …

August 7, 2016

OK, let’s start with the obvious: Trump had a very, very bad week … and, if I were Trump, I’d rather have Clinton’s poll results than Trump’s.

But, Trump’s campaign obit may be a bit premature.

At least one poll’s results suggest that Donald may still have a pulse.

The Reuters / IPSO poll shows a typical dissipation of Hillary’s post-convention bounce … and a statistically significant bounceback for the Donald … narrowing Clinton’s advantage to only 2.4 percentage points … within the margin of error.

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Clintonites surely consider the results to be simply an outlier.

For Trumpsters, it’s a ray of hope.

Which is it?

Here are some factors to consider …

(more…)

Trump : “Data analytics is overrated” … could he be right?

August 2, 2016

Last week, the WSJ ran an opinion piece: Trump’s Big Data Gamble.

The punch line: “While Donald tweets to the masses, Hillary will be precisely targeting persuadable voters.”

Advantage Hillary, right?

Maybe.  Maybe not.

In an AP interview, Trump said that he “always thought that it (meaning data analytics) was overrated” and, accordingly, he’ll spend limited money on data operations to identify and track potential voters and to model various turnout scenarios that could give him the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency.

He’s moving away from the model Obama used successfully in his 2008 and 2012 wins, and the one that likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is trying to replicate, including hiring many of the staff that worked for Obama in his “Victory Lab”.

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A data-light strategy may sound very old-school in the era of big data … especially coming from Trump …. but it reminded me of an opinion piece that Peggy Noonan wrote in the WSJ soon after Obama’s 2012 election win.

Noonan had a riff about predictive analytics that caught my eye.

It pointed out one of the downsides of predictive analytics … the craft of crunching big data bases to ID people, their behaviors and their hot buttons.

Here’s what Noonan had to say …

(more…)

How to sway the “none-of-the-above” voters …

August 1, 2016

According to pollster Frank Luntz

“It’s not the low-information “undecideds” who will determine the election, it’s the “none-of-the-above voter”who knows lot about both candidates and doesn’t like either one.”

These folks have deeply held opinions about what they want and expect from the next President.

They can’t stomach the choice between “crude” and “corrupt” … a decision with no good outcome.”

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Luntz concludes that these none-of-the-above voters have eight core hot buttons …

(more…)

Trump Bump: 10 pt. swing in CNN poll … leads by 3

July 25, 2016

Latest CNN poll has Trump leading Clinton 48 to 45 …  Trump up 6 from pre-convention … Clinton down 4 … a 10 point swing according the CNN.

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Some details …

(more…)

Ivanka: Champion for working women … especially mothers.

July 22, 2016

“As the mother of 3 children, I know that all working mothers should have access to affordable childcare. I will be their voice.”

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More notable snippets:

(more…)

Pence: “You can’t fake good kids” …

July 22, 2016

The Trump kids emerged as Donald’s not-so-secret weapons.

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What to expect?

(more…)

Trumpspeak: It’s all about the way he talks …

July 22, 2016

Trump’s speech last night had some clear takeaways: (1) law & order  (2) anti-terrorism  (3) outreach to both LGBTQs and Evangelicals (4) dignity and economic hope for the working class.

The speech was civilized .. which was probably disappointing those folks who were rooting for a crash & burn.

My opinion: he came across as a credible “blue-collar billionaire” …  has genuine empathy for the working class …. still, a bit rough around the edges.

 Breaking: CNN “snap poll” reports that 74% of viewers had a favorable reaction to Trump’s speech.

The speech reminded me of a great piece in the Washington Post by Barton Swaim author of “The Speechwriter: A Brief Education in Politics.”

His basic conclusion: “The most distinctive about Trump … is the structure of his language.”

clip_image002

======

Swain says that Trump — nnlike most politicians –doesn’t speak in political rhetoric; he speaks in punchlines – short jabs, not convoluted passages.

(more…)

2016: Revenge of the unintelligensia?

July 20, 2016

Will “uneducated” voters determine the 2016 Presidential election?

=========

The most recent Washington Post poll – showing Hillary leading Donald by a couple of points — provides some very interesting drill down data … it’s worth some browsing time.

Buried in the numbers is some interesting data…..

======

MSM headlines frequently stereotype Trump’s supporters as non-college degreed whites … and often, the label is shorthanded as a more pejorative “uneducated”, i.e. mind-numbed dummies.

According to the WaPo poll, it’s true that Trump is favored by “white non-college” almost 2-to-1 … 60% to 33%

clip_image002

=======

No surprise there …

But, here are some findings that did surprise me a bit since they never gets spotlighted in the mainstream media…

(more…)

Trump’s Wealth: Fact-checking the fact-checkers …

July 19, 2016

Bottom line: The “fact-checkers” get 4 Pinocchios … based on their “facts” and some simple arithmetic.

Chatting with one of my liberal friends over the weekend (<= note that I didn’t say “My one liberal friend”), he dished the Dem talking point that Trump is not an accomplished business man … he could have grown his wealth more by simply investing in an S&P index fund.

Really?

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Let’s pull some “facts” from the liberal “fact-checkers” (WaPo and Tampa Bay Times) and do some simple math…

(more…)

Brexit in 2 charts …

June 24, 2016

For sure, yesterday’s vote in the UK to leave the EU was a jolt to the Establishment – the world financiers, political elites and open border aficionados.

Cutting to the chase, the vote of the people appears to have swung on one issue: immigration.

According to Bloomberg, immigration  surpassed the economy as voters’ major concern.

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And, since immigration into the UK is now essentially regulated (or unregulated) by EU whims, 75% of voters with immigration concerns logically opted to to pull the “Leave” lever.

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My take: Some implications for the U.S. election…

Obviously, the Establishment lost … and immigration emerged as a determining issue.

Hmmm …

The world economy is likely to take a short-term hit …. with some derived damage to the already weakening US economy … during the run-up to the election.

Double hmmm.

Imagine: what if Donald J. stops saying dumb stuff …

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#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

Trump : “Data analytics is overrated” … could he be right?

May 19, 2016

In an AP interview, Trump said that he “always thought that it (meaning data analytics) was overrated” and, accordingly, he’ll spend limited money on data operations to identify and track potential voters and to model various turnout scenarios that could give him the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency.

He’s moving away from the model Obama used successfully in his 2008 and 2012 wins, and the one that likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is trying to replicate, including hiring many of the staff that worked for Obama in his “Victory Lab”.

clip_image002
=====

A data-light strategy may sound very old-school in the era of big data … especially coming from Trump …. but it reminded me of an opinion piece that Peggy Noonan wrote in the WSJ soon after Obama’s 2012 election win.

Noonan had a riff about predictive analytics that caught my eye.

It pointed out one of the downsides of predictive analytics … the craft of crunching big data bases to ID people, their behaviors and their hot buttons.

Here’s what Noonan had to say …

(more…)

Dilbert asks: “Who wants a dangerous man in the White House?”

May 16, 2016

Well, not actually Dilbert … rather Dilbert’s author Scott Adams.

On his Dilbert blog, Adams took aim at the current Presidential campaign …

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First, Hillary’s constant refrain that we can’t have a loose cannon in the White House.

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Adam’s observation on “Dangerous Trump”:

Trump’s opponents have started making the case that he is “a loose cannon” … a “dangerous man”

You know who likes dangerous men?

Answer: Everyone.

Seal Team Six is dangerous. George Washington was dangerous. Abraham Lincoln was dangerous. Women like dangerous men. Men want to be dangerous men.

“Dangerous” borders on being a compliment. When you need to thwart some enemies – such as a useless Congress, or ISIS – you want to send in your most dangerous fighter.

 

From other commentators:

(1)  “Every other country with nukes has a wacko with his finger on the button.  Why shouldn’t the U.S. — just to keep things even”.

(2) “Girls like bad boys, right?  Maybe this will fix Trump’s polling with women.”

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Here are a couple more of Adam’s quips …

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John Miller for President !

May 15, 2016

Busted: WaPo sleuths drop Trump bombshell
… outs him for posing as “John Miller”

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Last week, the Jeff Bezos owned Washington Post announced that it was dedicating a team of 20 “journalists” to dig dirt on Donald Trump.

Already, the commitment to truth-and-justice has hit paydirt.

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What Bezos’ Ninja investigators found may – in the words of some mainstream media echoheads — “spell the end of the Trump Presidential run”.

Here’s the scoop …

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Is “Make America Great Again” trademarked?

May 10, 2016

You bet “Make America Great Again”  is trademarked.

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And, no surprise, the trademark registration reads …

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OK, that’s to be expected.

But, here are a couple of wrinkles that may surprise you …

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Michael Goodwin: It’s time for Trump …

March 22, 2016

Michael Goodwin is a NY Post writer … says that he’s a Democrat who voted for Obama in 2008.

Over the weekend, he wrote an editorial titled Why it’s time for a Trump revolution .

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I think that Goodwin does a poignant job cutting to the chase.

His basic tenet: “Contempt for Trump reflects contempt for his working-class white support.”

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Huff Post: How Paul Ryan Will Pick the Next President.

March 21, 2016

Over the weekend, the Huffington Post ran an article: How Paul Ryan Will Pick the Next President.

Writers Chris LaTondresse and Adam Phillips claim credit for conceiving a scenario that would place an establishment Republican into the White House even if Trump is the GOP nominee.

Sorry guys, you’re a bout a month late.

Loyal HomaFiles reader would recognize the plot from our Feb. 29 post:

The GOP can still get a “true” Republican elected … here’s how.

Since it’s timely (and getting jacked without attribution), I thought I’d reprise it today.

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Let’s start with some basic assumptions:

(1) Trump hijacks the GOP and wins the nomination … much to the dismay of the GOP “establishment”.

(2) Trump and Hillary fight a tightly contested toss-up race.

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So, how can the establishment get a “true” – or at least “truer” Republican elected.

It wouldn’t be easy, but it’s possible.

Let’s connect a couple of dots.

Dot #1: Politico is reporting that some big GOP donors are researching ballot-access requirements for independent candidates in case Trump wraps up the GOP nomination.

Dot #2: The electoral map and the quirks of the electoral college process.

There’s an out-of-the box way to make a “true” Republican president … really.

 

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Electoral Map

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You won’t hear this any place else, so let me explain …

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Trump’s appeal among the “precariat”…

March 18, 2016

From a very interesting election analysis in the Orange County Register by Joel Kotkin – Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University …

Disclaimer: I’m not a Trump fan because of his incivility (bad role model for kids), unpredictability (I have no idea where he really stands on any issue except “the wall” – and I’m betting the under on that one), and temperament (though I wonder why the U.S. should be the only country that doesn’t have a wild man with their finger on the nuclear button – why not round out the roster?).

That said, I’ll fill in his circle on the scantron ballot if it’s Trump vs. Hillary in Novemeber.

Why?

I have much sympathy for his constituency of victims: lower and middle class working class folks … with emphasis on “working”.

You know,  the folks that the press likes to brutally characterize as “brain dead, mindless zombies”.

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In his article, Mr. Kotkin more charitably coins them as the “precariat” — people who are working, many part time or on short-term gigs, but lacking long-term security.

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Mar-a-Lago: Here’s a grand irony for you …

March 16, 2016

NY Times decided to take a shot at Trump’s opulence in a piece titled: A King in His Castle

Here’s an excerpt to set the context …

Everything seemed to sparkle at the Mar-a-Lago estate here on a recent afternoon.

The sun glinted off the pool and the black Secret Service S.U.V.s in the circular driveway.

Palm trees rustled in a warm breeze, croquet balls clicked and a security guard stood at the entrance to Donald J. Trump’s private living quarters.

You can always tell when the king is here.

Mar-a-Lago is where Mr. Trump comes to escape, entertain and luxuriate in a Mediterranean-style manse.  

The king was returning that day to his Versailles, a 118-room snowbird’s paradise that will become a winter White House if he is elected president.

 

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Mar-a-Lago was built 90 years ago by the cereal heiress Marjorie Merriweather Post.

Here’s where the grand irony comes in …

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Trump: “Christie is a complete tool”

March 3, 2016

OK, he didn’t really say it … but, he might as well have.

Granted, it was a masterful coup by the Donald.

Little Marco made him squirm during the debate.

12 hours later, Trump takes all of the wind out of Rubio’s sail by rolling out (<= pun intended) Gov. Christie with an endorsement.

A clever play by Trump … a moment of reclamation for Christie?

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Err, not so fast …

Did you notice how quickly Christie got banished … by Trump … by the media … and by his now-former supporters?

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It’s hard to stop bullying if the bullies keep winning …

March 2, 2016

Years ago, my sons’ high school headmaster (aka. “principal”) launched a program aimed at civility.

He was concerned that kids were becoming disrespectful to adults … and to each other.

Most parents thought the idea was a bit quirky… students had no idea what he was talking about.

The guy eventually got canned when he allowed police into the school to arrest some kids who were peddling drugs … a rather uncivil behavior. (Parents thought that letting police into the school was uncivil …)

My take: the guy was a couple of decades ahead of his time.

Fast forward to today.

As near as I can tell, the anti-bullying campaigns and rhetoric have been largely pushed to the back burner … only being cameoed when there is a teen tragedy directly linked to bullying.

Why is that happening?

Simple.

The bullies keep emerging as winners … and winning beats losing.

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Case in point: Donald J. Trump.

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So far, the best line of the campaign …

March 1, 2016

When Trump is ridiculing, he’s just mean-spirited.

My beef: he doesn’t make me laugh.

I think the new Marco delivers some pretty funny lines … with great timing and cadence.

Of course, most of his material is cooked up by his writers.

A comedian’s true meddle is tested extemporaneously.

My view: Marco scored in a recent Virginia rally.

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A heckler was shouting that Rubio was an empty suit.

“At least it’s not a Trump suit that’s made in China.”

Not bad …

When the heckler continued, Rubio hit him with a haymaker:

“Ladies and gentlemen, meet the valedictorian from Trump University.”

Great line. Great timing.

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#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

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Trump’s appeal among the “precariat”…

March 1, 2016

From a very interesting election analysis in the Orange County Register by Joel Kotkin – Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University …

Disclaimer: I’m not a Trump fan because of his incivility (bad role model for kids), unpredictability (I have no idea where he really stands on any issue except “the wall” – and I’m betting the under on that one), and temperament (though I wonder why the U.S. should be the only country that doesn’t have a wild man with their finger on the nuclear button – why not round out the roster?).

That said, I’ll fill in his circle on the scantron ballot if it’s Trump vs. Hillary in Novemeber.

Why?

I have much sympathy for his constituency of victims: lower and middle class working class folks … with emphasis on “working”.

You know,  the folks that the press likes to brutally characterize as “brain dead, mindless zombies”.

clip_image002

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In his article, Mr. Kotkin more charitably coins them as the “precariat” — people who are working, many part time or on short-term gigs, but lacking long-term security.

(more…)