Archive for the ‘Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow’ Category

Dilemma: The case of the lost concert tickets …

April 10, 2018

Here’s a classic “framing” question from Kahneman’s Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow

Here’s the situation:

A woman has bought two $80 tickets to the theater.

When she arrives at the theater, she opens her wallet and discovers that the tickets are missing.

$80 tickets are still available at the box office.

Will she buy two more tickets to see the play?

 

clip_image002

 

Most (but, not all) survey respondents answer that the woman will go home without seeing the show.

Let’s try another situation …

(more…)

Dilemma: The case of the lost concert tickets …

July 2, 2015

 

A classic “framing” question from Kahneman’s Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow

Here’s the situation:

A woman has bought two $80 tickets to the theater.

When she arrives at the theater, she opens her wallet and discovers that the tickets are missing.

$80 tickets are still available at the box office.

Will she buy two more tickets to see the play?

 

clip_image002

 

Most (but, not all) survey respondents answer that the woman will go home without seeing the show.

Let’s try another situation …

(more…)

Dilemma: The case of the lost concert tickets …

November 10, 2014

 

A classic “framing” question from Kahneman’s Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow

Here’s the situation:

A woman has bought two $80 tickets to the theater.

When she arrives at the theater, she opens her wallet and discovers that the tickets are missing.

$80 tickets are still available at the box office.

Will she buy two more tickets to see the play?

 

clip_image002

 

Most (but, not all) survey respondents answer that the woman will go home without seeing the show.

Let’s try another situation …

(more…)

The 7-year itch … here’s proof!

August 7, 2014

Here’s an interesting study excepted from Kahneman’s Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow

Let’s start with some background … straight from Wiki:

The “seven-year itch” is a psychological term that suggests that happiness in a relationship declines after around year seven of a marriage.

The phrase was first used to describe an inclination to become unfaithful after seven years of marriage in the play The Seven Year Itch by George Axelrod, and gained popularity following the 1955 film adaptation starring Marilyn Monroe and Tom Ewell.

The phrase has since expanded to indicate cycles of dissatisfaction not only in interpersonal relationships but in any situation such as working a full-time job or buying a house, where a decrease in happiness and satisfaction is often seen over long periods of time.

 

clip_image002

* * * * *

OK, so is the 7-year itch just folklore for real?

(more…)

Dilemma: The case of the lost concert tickets …

July 31, 2014

 

A classic “framing” question from Kahneman’s Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow

Here’s the situation:

A woman has bought two $80 tickets to the theater.

When she arrives at the theater, she opens her wallet and discovers that the tickets are missing.

$80 tickets are still available at the box office.

Will she buy two more tickets to see the play?

 

clip_image002

 

Most (but, not all) survey respondents answer that the woman will go home without seeing the show.

Let’s try another situation …

(more…)

Test your intuition: Can you tell a book by its cover?

July 23, 2014

Here’s a classic test of intuitive skills excepted from Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow

As you consider this question, please assume that Steve – the subject — was selected at random from a representative sample.

Steve has been described by a neighbor as follows: “Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with little interest in people or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail .”

clip_image002

* * * * *

Is Steve more likely to be a librarian or a farmer?
(more…)

Want to sell more? … Then, limit purchase quantities.

October 8, 2012

The effect is called “anchoring” … and it’s a well known cognitive bias.

When somebody is “primed” with a number, they will tend to internalize it and sub-consciously anchor their minds on the number.

Any estimates they then make are more often than not fine tuning adjustments around the anchor point.

“Any number that you are asked to consider as a possible solution to an estimation problem will induce an anchoring effect.”

For example, researchers consistently find that home appraisals and offer bids are invariably influenced by listing prices … even if objective, professional agents are involved … and even if they’re explicitly told to ignore the listing price.

Anchoring effects explain why, for example, arbitrary rationing is an effective marketing ploy.

A few years ago, supermarket shoppers in Sioux City, Iowa, encountered a sales promotion for Campbell’s soup at about 10% off the regular price.

On some days, a sign on the shelf said limit of 12 per person.

On other days, the sign said no limit per person. Shoppers purchased an average of 7 cans when the limit was in force, twice as many as they bought when the limit was removed.

Anchoring is not the sole explanation.

Rationing also implies that the goods are flying off the shelves, and shoppers should feel some urgency about stocking up.

But we also know that the mention of 12 cans as a possible purchase

So, to boost sales, tell customers that there’s a limit on the number of items they can buy.

They’ll get anchored on the limiting number … and often buy up to the limit.

The same effect occurs when products are priced as multiples … say, 3 for $6.

Shoppers will tend to buy 3, even if the retailer is only charging $2 each regrdless of how many are sold.

Excerpted from Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow

>> Latest Posts

Trust your intuition, ladies …

September 17, 2012

According to a study reported in LiveScience, a bride’s cold feet at the wedding altar is a strong predictor of divorce.

image

When researchers asked the newlyweds, “Were you ever uncertain or hesitant about getting married?”

  • 47% of husbands answered “yes,”
  • 38% of wives said “yes”

While men were more likely to have cold feet, their wives’ reservations better predicted future problems.

Newlywed wives who had doubts about getting married before their wedding were two-and-a-half times more likely to divorce four years later than wives without these doubts.

In 36 percent of couples, both partners said they had no doubts before the wedding, and of those, just 6 percent got divorced by the four-year mark.

Among couples in which the wife or both spouses reported premarital doubts, 20 percent got divorced.

“Do the doubts  go away when you have a mortgage and two kids? Don’t count on that.”

>> Latest Posts