Archive for the ‘Climate change’ Category

Recap: The 10 reasons why I’m lukewarm to climate change…

June 19, 2017

I’m neither a denier nor a zealot …  so, according to British writer (& phrase-coiner) Matt Ridley, I’m a “lukewarmer”.

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For the record, here are the 10 reasons that I’m a lukewarmer … with links to the prior posts:

  1.   Unsettling science   From “Ice Age” to  “Global Warming”  to “18-year Pause” to“Climate Change”.

2.   Expired doomsday predictions   By 2016, NYC would be swamped, Polar bears would be extinct, etc.

3.  The “97% of scientists” baloney   Oft-repeated doesn’t make it true – here’s the real story

4.  Dinking with the data   Temperature data “adjusted” by the NOAA eliminated the 18-year pause and bolstered the global warming case

5.  Temperature readings – plus or minus   Bottom line: thermometers weren’t very precise in the old days … and still have wide variances

6.  What’s the earth’s temperature?   It depends on the mix of reporting locations and an array of factors at each of them

7.  The Climategate Emails   Climate scientists were exposed hiding exculpatory data for political purposes

8.  Low on American’s worry list   Folks will nod that it’s probably getting warmer, but have more urgent matters to worry about (like keeping their jobs or getting healthcare)

9.  Seen a Volt recently?   Obama vowed a million EVs by now – where are the “believers”?

10. Letting the perps walk   For all practical purposes, the Paris Accords gave the world’s worst polluters – India & China – a free pass.

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And, my advice to climate change advocates:

(1) “Re-brand” the cause to fighting pollution — people can relate to that and it gets to the same end-point

(2)  Stop the incredible (i.e. not credible) scare tactics

(3)  Walk-the-talk … dampen the hypocricy

(4)  Show some respect for the opinions of lukewarmers (or even skeptics)

#HomaFiles

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#10 – Why I’m lukewarm to climate change…

June 19, 2017

Reason #10- Letting the perps walk

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I’m neither a denier nor a zealot …  so, according to British writer (& phrase-coiner) Matt Ridley, I’m a “lukewarmer”.

In a prior posts, I covered: (1) Unsettling science (2) Expired doomsday predictions (3) The “97% of scientists” baloney  (4) Dinking with the data  (5) Temperature readings – plus or minus (6) What’s the earth’s temperature? (7) The Climategate Emails (8) Low on American’s worry list and (9) Seen a Volt recently?

Let’s move on…

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Reason #10 – Letting the perps walk

This one is pretty straightforward …

China has reached record-breaking levels of air pollution that the monitoring equipment can no longer keep track.

Unfortunately, air pollution isn’t just affecting China. Greenpeace states that India is now the world’s worst when it comes to air pollution.

The average India citizen is exposed to 5x as much air pollution as the average Chinese citizen. Source

Ouch!

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And, the revered Paris Accords won’t make things better any time soon…

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#9 – Why I’m lukewarm to climate change…

June 16, 2017

Reason #9 – Seen a Volt lately?

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I’m neither a denier nor a zealot …  so, according to British writer (& phrase-coiner) Matt Ridley, I’m a “lukewarmer”.

In a prior posts, I covered: (1) Unsettling science (2) Expired doomsday predictions (3) The “97% of scientists” baloney  (4) Dinking with the data  (5) Temperature readings – plus or minus (6) What’s the earth’s temperature? (7) The Climategate Emails and (8) Low on American’s worry list

Let’s move on…

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Reason #9 – Seen a Volt lately?

In a prior post, we presented some survey data indicating that climate change is far down the list of things concerning average Americans.

Survey data is always subject to some interpretation, and surveys often contradict one another.

So, let’s look at some hard data.

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Flashback to 2008: former President Barack Obama set a goal of getting one million plug-in electric vehicles on the roads by 2015.

So, how’s it going?

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#8 – Why I’m lukewarm to climate change…

June 15, 2017

Reason #8 – Low on American’s worry list

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I’m neither a denier nor a zealot …  so, according to British writer (& phrase-coiner) Matt Ridley, I’m a “lukewarmer”.

In a prior posts, I covered: (1) Unsettling science (2) Expired doomsday predictions (3) The “97% of scientists” baloney  (4) Dinking with the data  (5) Temperature readings – plus or minus (6) What’s the earth’s temperature? and (7) The Climategate emails

Let’s move on…

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Reason #8: Climate change is low on American’s worry list

According to a survey reported by tleft-leaning Brookings:

About 2/3’s of Americans think that they’ve read or heard solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer.

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OK, they say that they think the earth is getting warmer.

But here’s the rub:

Even if folks agree  that they’ve read or heard that the earth is warming, they don’t seem to care much.

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#7 – Why I’m lukewarm to climate change …

June 14, 2017

Reason #7: The Climategate emails

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I’m neither a denier nor a zealot …  so, according to British writer (& phrase-coiner) Matt Ridley, I’m a “lukewarmer”.

In a prior posts, I covered: (1) Unsettling science (2) Expired doomsday predictions (3) The “97% of scientists” baloney  (4) Dinking with the data  (5) Temperature readings – plus or minus and (6) What’s the earth’s temperature?

Let’s move on…

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Reason #7: The Climategate emails

“Climategate” was a scandal involving the hacking of servers at the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia and subsequent public release of thousands of emails among scientists working to prove that humans are causing a global warming crisis.

Of course, climate zealots thought the scandal was the hacking.

Climate skeptics thought the scandal was the content of the emails.

Sound familiar?

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click for Amazon link

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The leaked emails were quite revealing…

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#6 – Why I’m lukewarm to climate change…

June 13, 2017

Reason #6: What’s the earth’s temperature?

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I’m neither a denier nor a zealot …  so, according to British writer (& phrase-coiner) Matt Ridley, I’m a “lukewarmer”.

In a prior posts, I covered: (1) Unsettling science (2) Expired doomsday predictions (3) The “97% of scientists” baloney (4) Dinking with the data  and (5) Temperature readings – plus or minus

Let’s move on…

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Reason #6: What’s the earth’s temperature?

Climate “scientists” are confidently forecasting temperatures to to fractional degrees … 50 or 100 years out.

Contrast that to a local DC TV station which promotes a 3-degree forecast guarantee for the next day’s high temperature.

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That is, if the next day’s high temperature at a specific measurement location (think, Reagan Airport) falls within a specified 6-degree band (the forecast plus or minus 3 degrees), the weatherman lays claim to another successful forecast.

The success rate is about 90% … or conversely:

The weather guy misses about 10% of the time on a next day temperature forecast … despite a robust 6-degree forecast range.

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The Washington Post took an interesting swipe at the 3-degree guarantee:

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#5 – Why I’m lukewarm to climate change…

June 12, 2017

Reason #5: Temperature readings – plus or minus.

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I’m neither a denier nor a zealot …  so, according to British writer (& phrase-coiner) Matt Ridley, I’m a “lukewarmer”.

In a prior posts, I covered: (1) Unsettling science (2) Expired doomsday predictions (3) The “97% of scientists” baloney and (4) Dinking with the data .

Let’s move on…

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Reason #5: Temperature readings – plus or minus.

Let’s start with a personal story….

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Last week I had an air conditioning problem that I isolated to the thermostat … specifically, the themometer’s digital thermometer.

For openers, I showed the HVAC repair guy my handy portable digital thermometer that was reading 73 degrees … and pointed to the thermostat which was reading 76 degrees.

He reached into his bag and pulled out “truth” … a fancy electronic gadget that measures temperatures precisely (or so the guy said).

Guess what … “truth” read 74 degrees.

OK, so which was the real temperature?

The guy’s response: “Best we hope for is getting these things within a couple of degrees of each other.”

Really?

We couldn’t get a $1,000 space-age thermostat, a personal digital thermometer (reading temps out to 1 decimal place) … and, of course, the HVAC guys “truth” meter to agree.

Hmmm.

Climate zealots are confidently reporting temperatures for back 100 years ago (when digital thermometers didn’t even exist).

And, they’re confidently forecasting temperatures out a hundred years from now within 1 degree Centigrade.

Think about that for a second …

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#4 – Why I’m lukewarm to climate change…

June 9, 2017

Reason #4: Dinking with the data

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I’m neither a denier nor a zealot …  so, according to British writer (& phrase-coiner) Matt Ridley, I’m a “lukewarmer”.

In a prior posts, I covered:

Reason #1Unsettling Science … I’ve gotten  cognitive whiplash from “Ice Age” u-turning to  “Global Warming”  …  which was slowed by an “18-year Pause” … and then wrapped in a catch-all “Climate Change”.

Reason #2Al Gore and his doomsday prediction …  in 2016 we passed his point of no return towards a true planetary emergency  … without the planet melting or exploding … and with Manhattan still above water (I think).

Reason #3The “97% of scientists” baloney … an oft-repeated claim based on bad data science: a very small,  hand-picked sample of climate change papers, not a projectable sample of scientists … which literally put words into authors’ mouths … i.e. bad data science.

Let’s move on…

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Reason #4: Dinking with the data

Here’s a case in point:

Remember the 18-year “”Global Warming “Pause”?

Raw recorded temperature data slowed that temperatures had flattened out for a recent 18 year period.

English translation: no evidence of global warming.

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Well, in 2015,  a team of scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information* (NCEI) made some “adjustments” to global surface temperature data. Source

English translation: they dinked with the data.

Among the results:  the 18-year pause that was evident in the raw data went away (chart above).

More broadly, the revised (i.e. manually manipulated) data reversed an 80-year cooling trend evident in the raw data … and validated a warming trend that was not  evident until the temperature data was revised. Source

As Gomer Pyle would say: “Surprise, surprise, surprise.”

Scientists that I know wouldn’t think of manually “adjusting” their data when they didn’t get the results they expected.

That would be bad science, right?

But, it doesn’t seem to deter the climate scientists.

Maybe the adjustments are legit … I don’t know.

Nonetheless, they seem pretty fishy to me.

And, gives me another reason to be lukewarm.

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Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

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#3 – Why I’m lukewarm to climate change…

June 8, 2017

Reason #3: The “97% of scientists” baloney

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I’m neither a denier nor a zealot …  so, according to British writer (& phrase-coiner) Matt Ridley, I’m a “lukewarmer”.

In a prior posts, I covered:

Reason #1Unsettling Science … I’ve gotten  cognitive whiplash from “Ice Age” u-turning to  “Global Warming”  …  which was slowed by an “18-year Pause” … and then wrapped in a catch-all “Climate Change”.

Reason #2Al Gore and his doomsday prediction …  in 2016 we passed his point of no return towards a true planetary emergency  … without the planet melting or exploding … and with Manhattan still above water (I think).

Let’s move on…

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My 3rd reason: The “97% of scientists” baloney.

This claim really gained traction when former President Obama tweeted:

“97% percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and dangerous.”

Case closed, right?

Hot so fast …

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Let’s start with a simple smell test:

Can you think of any issue that garners 97% agreement?

My bet is that 97%% of “scientists” don’t even agree that smoking causes cancer.

Pick your issue … 97% … really?

Doesn’t smell right to me, but maybe climate change the exception to the rule.

So, let’s deep dive the claim…

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#2 – Why I’m lukewarm to climate change …

June 7, 2017

Reason #2: Al Gore and his his Doomsday Predictions

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I’m neither a denier nor a zealot …  so, according to British writer (& phrase-coiner) Matt Ridley, I’m a “lukewarmer”.

In a prior post, I covered reason #1 … Unsettling Science  … I’ve gotten  cognitive whiplash from “Ice Age” u-turning to  “Global Warming”  …  which was slowed by an “18-year Pause” … and then wrapped in a catch-all “Climate Change”.

Sorry, but this just doesn’t strike me as settled science.

Let’s move on…

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My 2nd reason: Al Gore and his doomsday predictions .

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Let me be unscientifically caddy for a moment.

I think Al Gore is a complete dufass who has raked millions preaching on behalf of climate change.

I personally don’t believe a thing that the dude says.  Period.

As a recovering marketer, I think the zealots would be better off with PeeWee Herman as their front-man.

OK, with that out of the way, let’s get specific ….

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Why I’m a “lukewarmer” … ambivalent to climate change.

June 6, 2017

Reason #1: From “The Coming Ice Age” … to “Global Warming” … to “18 year Pause” … to “Climate Change”

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Amid the hysteria over President Trump’s ditching of the Paris Accords, I had a long talk with myself.

“Self,” I asked “Why are you so apathetic to the pending Apocalypse?”

My first reason: the wide swings in the “branding” of the impending disaster that “scientists” anticipate.

For example, back in the late 1950s (yes, I was alive then), scientists were already touting the next ice age.

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That crisis scenario caught traction for a couple of decades…

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Perspectives on climate change …

April 24, 2017

To celebrate Earth Day, there was a Science March in DC on Saturday.

There were many serious scientists worried about Trump de-funding their work.

There were also the usual cadre of cause-chilling climate change zealots.

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Whenever I see these folks I reach back for some grounded perspective from political commentator (and comedian) Dennis Miller …

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What’s up (or down) with oil prices?

December 22, 2015

I’m sure you’ve noticed that gas prices have come down at the pump.

If you follow the economy or the stock market, you’ve certainly noticed that oil prices have come down … a couple of years ago it was selling for over $130 per barrel … now it’s selling for under $35.

Most pundits chalk it up to slowing economic growth in China.

But, that sounded too simple to me, so I started asking some questions … why’s it happening? who’s getting helped or hurt?

 

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Here’s my current theory of the case …

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Did you notice the Global Warming hysteria in DC over the weekend?

December 14, 2015

No, I’m not talking about the Paris Accords … I’ll get to them later.

I’m talking about Christmas shoppers strolling the streets of DC in shirtsleeves with temps in the 70s.

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I heard a lot of comments like “This is sweet” and “Who needs Florida?”

I didn’t overhear anybody saying “But, what will happen to the earth 10,000 years from now?” or “How about those Paris Accords?”

So, I feel obligated to draw attention to the “historic” Paris Climate Change Accords.

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Are people buying in to climate change?

December 4, 2015

How big of a worry is climate change?

According to Gallup, a slim majority of Americans think that climate change is “not a worry at all” or is “a little bit of a worry”.

Hardly hysteria.

The issue ranks #14 on Gallup’s list of top worries … about twice as many people think that the economy and government spending is a big deal.

People are way more concerned about crime & violence, terrorism and the availability & affordability of energy.

Hmm.

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And, even more interesting than the polling data is how people are acting in the free market …

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Still more climate change perspectives …

December 3, 2015

From “The Coming Ice Age” … to “Global Warming” … to “Climate Change” … to “Extreme Weather Events”

Yesterday, we looked at some of the doomsday forecasts about what’s likely to happen if world leaders don’t take significant anti-carbon action at the Global Summit on Climate Change.

Most of the doom & gloom comes from what scientists speculate happened here on earth a couple of hundred thousand years ago.

Like they have good data from a million years ago, right?

Today, let’s look at some more recent history.

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First up is the 18 year “pause” in global warming.

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Another Climate Change Perspective …

December 2, 2015

NY Times: Best & Worst Cases

Over the weekend, the NY Times published a piece by Curt Stager — a professor of natural sciences at Paul Smith’s College.

Prof. Stager’s opening salvo:

The cleanup (of the carbon already in the atmosphere) will take tens of thousands of years even if we switch quickly to renewable energy sources.

When the Earth’s slow cyclic tilting and wobbling along its eccentric orbital path once again leads to a major cooling period some 50,000 years from now, enough of our heat-trapping carbon emissions will still remain in the atmosphere to warm the planet just enough to weaken that chill.

Holy Smokes, Batman … 50,000 years

 

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But, not to worry, Prof. Stager serves up a best case scenario…

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Climate Change Perspectives …

December 1, 2015

Today: Warren Buffett

First, let’s put a couple of stakes in the ground …

I’m not a big Warren Buffet fan.

He’s a big fan of Barack Obama, and is always being rolled out as the sage of American business.

He whines about how his secretary’s marginal tax rate is higher than his … but, he doesn’t consider paying her more to cover the difference …  he just asserts that my taxes should be higher.

But, since he’s President Obama’s man, I wondered …

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Where does Buffett come out on climate change?

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Weather: Make it, don’t just report it.

January 25, 2013

A CEO I worked for used to oft say “ I pay you to make the weather, not just report it.”

I thought it was a clever line … and use it in class … to raise the old expectation’s bar.

Well, apparently former Mexican President, Felipe Calderon and his buddies at Davos heard the same admonition.

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According to sources, the Davos leaders are calling for an unprecedented investment of $14 trillion to green the global economy, to stop climate change and to preempt hurricanes.

Here’s more …

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