Archive for the ‘2016 Presidential Election’ Category

Remember how we got into this ObamaCare mess?

July 19, 2017

It was DOJ action that changed the course of our nation in 2008 — giving us, for example, ObamaCare.

Flashback to 2008 … you know, the year that Barack Obama was elected.

Well, the DOJ didn’t indict Sen. John McCain for anything … nor did it overtly pave the way for Obama’s election.

But  the DOJ did tilt the legislative scales in a defining way.

Who did they indict?

image

=======

The DOJ indicted Alaska’s Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican Senator in U.S. history. He was indicted during his 2008 re-election campaign.

What were the charges, what were the implications, and how was the case ultimately resolved?

(more…)

Blame it on a Macedonian “content farm” … say, what?

June 2, 2017

Hillary is dishing why  she lost … except the obvious.

========

She’s on a pre-release tour laying the groundwork for 2 books that come out this fall.

The last 2 days, she has been perched on a faux-throne at CodeCon and the Javits Center …spilling the beans on why she lost.

image

Of course, there are the usual villains: Comey, the Russians, WikiLeaks, deplorables, etc.

But, she’s also starting to turn on her support base: the DNC (bad data, no money, no ground game), mainstream media (for disclosing that she had classified docs on her server), women (both suburban and rural, urbans were ok), and low-information voters (her base !).

My personal favorite: “content farms in Macedonia” … apparently there’s an army of tech savvy social media writers based in Macedonia who turned their cannons on her.

Really?

=========
Here’s a current list of culprits and ill-wishers … (more…)

About the hyperventilation over Russia…

June 1, 2017

Some key points are being overlooked.

=====

Fueled by rumors and “secret intel assessment”, election-deniers are having a field day blaming Queen Hillary’s loss on the Russians and alleging that Trump is in Putin’s back pocket.

Beyond the hypocrisy of the Dems hissy fit over Trump’s  refusal (in debate #3) to commit to accepting the election results if they seemed tainted (<= ironic, isn’t it?), the deniers seem to be overlooking a couple of key points.

(more…)

Did data analytics miss the forest for the trees?

April 25, 2017

Team Clinton’s GOTV effort got out a lot of votes … for Trump

======

Let’s dust-off another post related to the recently released book Shattered: Inside Clinton’s Doomed Campaign.

huffpost-big-data-clinton

 

According to the Huffington Post:

As the post-election day hangover wears off, an examination of the mechanics behind the Clinton’s get out the vote efforts ― reaching out to Clinton voters in key states at the door, on the phone or by text messages ― reveals evidence of what appears to be a pretty shocking truth.

Clinton volunteers were inadvertently turning out Trump voters.

Possibly in significant numbers.

What went wrong? (more…)

Democrats and the “wasted vote” phenomenon …

February 16, 2017

Two states and a handful of cities do not a country make.

========

Ran across an interesting article in the Boston Globe titled “The Democrats’ demographic dilemma.”

The punch line of the article:

Democrats have carried the popular vote in six of the last seven presidential elections, an unprecedented run.

But, Democrats are confronted by the “wasted vote phenomenon”.

They roll up huge margins in blue enclaves, but political polarization and demographic sorting control the electoral map.

clip_image002

=======

Here are a few highlight snippets from the article …

(more…)

A Inauguration Day irony …

January 20, 2017

Comey probably did cost the Dems the White House …

========

Here’s something for Dems to ponder on inauguration day.

My theory of the case from the get-go was that

(1) Hillary did break the law by grossly (and intentionally) mishandling classified information

(2) There was both harm & foul … i.e. foreign agents hacked the info.

(3) Comey brushed past the intent  (which wasn’t really required for criminality) and the harm of the foul … because he didn’t want to go down in history as the brutish guy who stopped the first woman from being elected president.

 

image

Here’s the irony for the Dems ….

(more…)

About the alleged Russian email hack …

December 19, 2016

Some key points are being overlooked.

=====

Fueled by a “secret CIA assessment”, election-deniers are having a field day blaming Queen Hillary’s loss on the Russians.

clip_image001

Beyond the hypocrisy of their post-debate-3 hyperventilation over Trump’s refusal to commit to accepting the election results if they seemed tainted, the deniers seem to be overlooking a couple of key points.

(more…)

Maybe Hillary should run for governor of California … here’s why.

December 16, 2016

She landslided California, but lost the combined popular vote in the other 49 states (& DC).

========

Dems are still carping that Trump’s ascendency is illegitimate since Hillary won the popular vote.

And, everybody knows that Hillary won big in California.

But, I was a bit surprised by how big her California win was … and its implications.

Bottom line: Clinton won the national popular vote by 2.8 million votes … buoyed by a 4.3 million edge in California.

Think about that for a second.

image

======

Yes, Clinton won California big time … but, Trump won the combined popular vote  of the other 49 states (& DC)

The MSM repeatedly observes that Trump followers drag their knuckles … and that Hillary dominated among the intelligensia.

So was Clinton’s success in California simply explained by Californians being smarter than the rest of the country?

Quick quiz: how does the average Californian’s IQ rack up against residents of other states?

The answer may surprise you ….

(more…)

Maybe the Russians didn’t hack the DNC …

December 13, 2016

I’ve got an alternative scenario for you.

========

Last week, focus shifted from fake news to Russian hacking intended to help Trump get elected.

There’s hand-wringing and outrage that the Russians might have tried to impact a U.S. election by revealing Hillary’s emails..

President Obama has ordered that an investigation be done and a report on his desk by the time he leaves office (i.e. right before President-elect Trump gets sworn in).

clip_image002
=======

Most recently, U.S. intelligence officials fingered the Russians but have conceded that (1) they are basing their views on deductive circumstantial reasoning and not conclusive evidence and (2) they are uncertain as to motive. Source

I’ve got an alternative deduced scenario for you.  Let’s connect some dots on this one …

(more…)

The art of storytelling and the “power of the narrative”

November 29, 2016

Trump mastered a “central truth of persuasion” … Hillary didn’t.

======

In my courses, I emphasize that pitches (think: Powerpoint decks) should be organized around storylines with smooth-flowing logic that is sufficiently compelling to lead the audience to an inescapable conclusion.

For many students, that notion doesn’t come naturally, especially since we typically think about stories in a cultural frame (movies, books, music) … not business communications..

Not only are storylines important in business communications, they are critical in political campaigns.

Just ask Mark McKinnon.

He’s a former Bush marketing adviser who followed around all of the candidates for a Showtime series called (appropriately) “The Circus”.

After 18 months on the campaign trail, McKinnon concluded:

clip_image002

More specifically, McKinnon says:

Voters are attracted to candidates who lay out a storyline.

Losing campaigns communicate unconnected streams of information, ideas, and speeches.

Winning campaigns create a narrative architecture that ties it all together into something meaningful and coherent.

Trump told a story.

Hillary didn’t.

So, how to tell a good story?

(more…)

Flashback: A “horrifying” assault on democracy.

November 28, 2016

Apparently, “horrification” depends on who is doing the assaulting.

=======

Let’s loop back to the N.Y. Times coverage of the 3rd Presidential debate …

In a remarkable statement that seemed to cast doubt on American democracy, Donald J. Trump said that he might not accept the results of next month’s election if he felt it was rigged against him.

Hillary Clinton blasted that stand as “horrifying” at their final and caustic debate.

The horror became a cause celebre among Dems and the MSM.

Now, let’s fast forward …

image

The details according to the WaPo:

Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign has been quietly exploring whether there was any “outside interference” in the election results and will participate in the election recount in Wisconsin initiated by Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein.

And if Stein makes good on efforts to prompt similar processes in Pennsylvania and Michigan  the Clinton campaign said it would do so there, as well.

Trump’s response:

The people have spoken and the election is over.

Hillary Clinton herself said on election night, in addition to her conceding by congratulating me, ‘We must accept this result and then look to the future.’

=======

P.S. We scoured both the Washington Post and N.Y. Times articles on Clinton’s apparent refusal to accept the certified election results.

Looking for the word “horrifying” and the phrase “American Democracy” in combination with the phrases “cast doubt on” or “attack on”, we got a “no results” message.

Shocker.

========

City elites ask: what’s up with those rural bumpkins?

November 21, 2016

One of the big divides in the Presidential election was the urban-rural split.

======

Rural communities have over 95% of the land mass; cities have more than 60% of the population.

Clinton carried the cities by 31 points; Trump carried the rural areas by 29 points; the suburbs were a push

According to The Daily Beast:

“Rural counties now deliver lopsided totals for Republicans that approach Democratic tallies in African-American neighborhoods.”

image

==========

What the heck is going on?

(more…)

A view from the North …

November 18, 2016

Canadians considering a wall on their southern border.

=======

According to Canadian news reports …

The flood of Trump-fearing American liberals sneaking across the border into Canada has reached a fever pitch since the election.

Canadian border residents say it’s not uncommon to see dozens of sociology professors, liberal arts majors, global-warming activists, and “green” energy proponents crossing their fields at night.

image

========

There has been an escalating exodus of left-leaning Americans who fear that they’ll soon be required to pray, pay taxes, live according to the Constitution and maybe even hunt.

Some case studies reported by Canadian residents are downright shocking …

(more…)

Did data analytics miss the forest for the trees?

November 17, 2016

Team Clinton’s GOTV effort got out a lot of votes … for Trump

======

huffpost-big-data-clinton

According to the Huffington Post:

As the post-election day hangover wears off, an examination of the mechanics behind the Clinton’s get out the vote efforts ― reaching out to Clinton voters in key states at the door, on the phone or by text messages ― reveals evidence of what appears to be a pretty shocking truth.

Clinton volunteers were inadvertently turning out Trump voters.

Possibly in significant numbers.

What went wrong? (more…)

Peggy Noonan denies it, but she saw it coming …

November 15, 2016

She grabs the pulse of America and lays it out there for all to read.

========

Loyal readers know that I’m a big Peggy Noonan fan.

She sees things that other people don’t see … until it’s too late.

image

Here’s what Noonan had to say in her post-election column: What Comes After the Uprising

Donald Trump said he had a movement and he did.

This is how you know.

His presidential campaign was bad—disorganized, unprofessional, chaotic, ad hoc.

There was no state-of-the-art get-out-the-vote effort—his voters got themselves out.

There was no high-class, high-tech identifying of supporters — they identified themselves.

They weren’t swayed by the barrage of brilliantly produced ads — those ads hardly materialized.

This was not a triumph of modern campaign modes and ways.

The people did this. As individuals within a movement.

Trump supporters are overwhelmingly citizens of good will and patriotic intent who never deserved to be deplored as racist, sexist, thuggish.

It was a natural, self-driven eruption.

Which makes it all the more impressive and moving.

And it somehow makes it more beautiful that few saw it coming.

While says modestly that she didn’t see it coming, I beg to differ.

Here’s the proof …

(more…)

The issues that divided the electorate …

November 11, 2016

Trump supporters: Illegal immigration, terrorism and job opportunities.

Clinton supporters: Gun violence, income inequality, college affordability and climate change.

image

========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

========

Flashback: Revenge of the unintelligensia?

November 11, 2016

Will “uneducated” voters determine the 2016 Presidential election?

Originally posted July 20, 2016

=========

The most recent Washington Post poll – showing Hillary leading Donald by a couple of points — provides some very interesting drill down data … it’s worth some browsing time.

Buried in the numbers is some interesting data…..

======

MSM headlines frequently stereotype Trump’s supporters as non-college degreed whites … and often, the label is shorthanded as a more pejorative “uneducated”, i.e. mind-numbed dummies.

According to the WaPo poll, it’s true that Trump is favored by “white non-college” almost 2-to-1 … 60% to 33%

clip_image002

=======

No surprise there …

But, here are some findings that did surprise me a bit since they never gets spotlighted in the mainstream media…

(more…)

Flashback: Trump’s appeal among the “precariat”…

November 10, 2016

And, there are over 100 million of them.

Originally posted March 1, 2016

========

From a very interesting election analysis in the Orange County Register by Joel Kotkin – Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University …

Disclaimer: I’m not a Trump fan because of his incivility (bad role model for kids), unpredictability (I have no idea where he really stands on any issue except “the wall” – and I’m betting the under on that one), and temperament (though I wonder why the U.S. should be the only country that doesn’t have a wild man with their finger on the nuclear button – why not round out the roster?).

That said, I’ll fill in his circle on the scantron ballot if it’s Trump vs. Hillary in Novemeber.

Why?

I have much sympathy for his constituency of victims: lower and middle class working class folks … with emphasis on “working”.

You know,  the folks that the press likes to brutally characterize as “brain dead, mindless zombies”.

clip_image002

=======

In his article, Mr. Kotkin more charitably coins them as the “precariat” — people who are working, many part time or on short-term gigs, but lacking long-term security.

(more…)

Sea of red: the county by county electoral map …

November 10, 2016

Trump won a majority of votes in the vast majority of counties.

image

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

About the massive voter turnout …

November 9, 2016

The big story last night sure wasn’t a record-setting turnout.

Trump drew about 2 million fewer votes than Romney did in 2012.

Some GOP stayed home; others drifted to Johnson.

The big headline is that Clinton got about 10 million fewer votes than Obama did in 2008 … and, about 6 million less than he got in 2012.

image

==========

Thanks to SMH for feeding the lead.

=========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

==========

A pollster who nailed it …

November 9, 2016

An unconventional technique found Trump’s “hidden” support.

=======

In a pre-election poll, the Trafalgar Group conclude that Trump had hidden support from an additional 3 percent to 9 percent of voters who didn’t want to reveal their true opinions to pollsters.

The company is betting its future by publicly testing — at its own expense — its own methods.

Trafalgar’s CEO Robert Cahaly says:

“On Wednesday, I’m either going to be guy who got it right, or nobody is going to listen to me anymore.”

                    Monday, November 7, 2016
clip_image001

Trafalgar’s polls are unconventional, designed to capture opinions from people who otherwise avoid lengthy interviews on the phone.

Here’s how they do it …

(more…)

Man against machine … Man wins !

November 9, 2016

image

image

=======

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

========

Since 1912, this model has only mis-called one Presidential elections…

November 8, 2016

I just wanted to get this one onthe record before the polls close.

=========

Helmut Norpoth, a political-science professor at Stony Brook University, has a Presidential election model that is largely driven by how well a candidate did in his/her party’s primary elections.

clip_image002

Before you chuckle … Norpath’s model has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1912, with the exception of 2000.

Earlier in the year, Norpoth predicted an 87% chance that Trump would prevail since he vanquished 15 competitors (winning NH & SC) –while Clinton tight tussled Bernie Sanders (losing both NH &SC).

Now, despite the plethora of polls showing Clinton ahead by at least 3 percentage points, Norpoth is sticking by the results of his model

He says: “If [Clinton] was leading by 10 or 20 points, I would say this is not going to be my year, but I don’t see it. It’s so close. It’s certainly do-able [for him], even when you look at the polls.”

Norpoth will “certainly have bragging rights if he’s right,” since just about everyone else is calling the race for Clinton.

Source

=========

No one can ever accuse Prof. Norpoth of “herding” – the tendency of forecasters go with most popular prediction.

========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

========

How many eligible citizens turnout to vote?

November 8, 2016

What’s the “mix” by party affiliation?

=========

By diving deeper into the widely varying polls, the obvious became evident to me.

By and large, the polls get about the same same answers by ‘type’ of voter … e.g. about 90% of voters throw their support behind their party’s candidate.

So, the variance in ‘headline’ numbers is almost entirely attributable to party-affiliation ‘mix’ – the proportion of voters from each party that are expected to turnout to vote.

Polls assuming that many more Dems will vote than GOPs say that Hillary is up by 4 or 5 points; polls that say there will be about an equal number of Dems & GOP turning out narrow the difference or give the edge to Trump.

Given that this will be a turnout election, I dove a bit deeper into voting trends, just to get some historical context for this election.

=========

For openers, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center

In 2012, there were about 219 million citizens eligible to vote … 57.5% (126 million) of them did vote.

Note that 1960 was the high-water mark (64.8%), not 2008 (62.5%).

And, note that 2012 was down about 5 percentage points from 2008.

image

This year, most pundits are predicting that about 130 million will vote.

Clinton is trying to stir enthusiasm to hold together the Obama coalition; Trump is counting on an increase in the number of working-class voters.

=========

Now, lets’s look at the partisan mix – the factor that will determine this year’s election….

(more…)

Election Day: Final Election Polls

November 8, 2016

LA Times: Trump +3

IBD: Trump +2

Media Herd: Clinton + 3.3

Nate Silver: Clinton + 3.6

Monmouth College: Clinton + 6

==========

L.A. Times Tracking: Trump + 3

clip_image002

==========

IBD: Trump + 2

clip_image004

========

Media Herd: Clinton + 3.3

clip_image006

=========

Nate Silver 538: Clinton + 3.6

clip_image008

clip_image010

==========

Monmouth University: Clinton +6

clip_image011

===========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

=========

Sunday polls: Pick your favorite …

November 6, 2016

There’s a poll for everybody today … pick one that confirms your biases.

========

WaPo: Clinton +4 

Turnout: Dems +7 (Dems 37%, GOP 30%, Independents 29%)

image

=======

IBD: Trump +1 

Most accurate in 2012

Turnout: +3 (Dems 37%, GOP 34%, Independents 29%)

Turnout assumption differences fully account for differences in IBD and WaPo

image

========

LA Times: Trump +6

Statistically significant: outside the margin of error

4th most accurate in 2012

No turnout assumptions reported

image

========

Nate Silver: Clinton +3

Clinton 2 to 1 favorite to win.

image

image

=======

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

========

Poll watching: A tale of 2 polls …

November 6, 2016

Here are the numbers to keep your eye on …

=========

In yesterday’s post, we highlighted how sensitive “headline” poll results are to the assumed party-affiliation mix of voters.

Let’s add another piece to the puzzle: there are 2 sets of data that have to be closely watched when trying to make sense of the polls:

(1) the assumed party-affiliation mix of voters, and

(2) the survey-determined voter preferences by party affiliation.

I know that’s common sense … what I didn’t realize is how much those numbers vary from poll-to-poll.

To illustrate the point, let’s look at 2 polls: FoxNews (presumed to lean right) and Washington Post – ABC (presumed to lean left).

The most recent Fox poll had the race as essentially a dead heat … slight Clinton lead.

image

=========

A recent WaPo poll had Clinton up by a couple of points.

image

=========

OK,let’s play around a bit with the numbers …

(more…)

Nums: Somebody explain this gender gap thing to me …

November 5, 2016

The numbers just don’t square with the narrative.

=======

OK, I understand the simple explanation:

Clinton can make history as the first woman President.

Trump is a crude billionaire playboy.

Women are sensible and sensitive.

Men are … well they’re men.

So, it makes sense that Trump leads by 11 points among men … and Clinton leads by 13 points among women.

image
FoxNews Poll Nov. 4

==========

But, digging a little deeper into the numbers, things get a bit confusing…

(more…)

Nums: Let’s look at turnout math …

November 5, 2016

Very small changes in the Dem / GOP mix make a YUGE difference.

=======

A recent WaPo poll had Clinton over Trump by 2 points.

Naturally, voter preference varied by self-proclaimed party affiliation:

Clinton got 86% of of the Dem vote; Trump got 88% of the GOP vote.

Independents went 47% to Trump and 40% to Clinton.

image

WaPo weighted their sample 37% Dems, 30% GOP and 29% Independents.

In concept that weighting should represent WaPo’s best guess as to the mix of voters on election day.

Some pundits argue that WaPo’s aggregate tally over-weights towards Dems.

Maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t. We’ll know in a couple of days.

For today, let’s just play around with the numbers to demonstrate how critical the turnout assumptions are …

(more…)

Silver: Breach in Hillary’s blue firewall ?

November 4, 2016

Trump’s chances are up to about 1 in 3, according to Dem-darling pollster Nate Silver.

image

=========

And, looking at the race’s dynamics, Silver see’s some red flags:

There’s been a potential breach of Hillary Clinton’s electoral firewall.

And it’s come in New Hampshire, a state that we said a couple of weeks ago could be a good indicator of a Donald Trump comeback because of its large number of swing voters.

Three new polls of New Hampshire released today showed a tied race … other recent polls of New Hampshire still show a Clinton ahead. But the race has clearly tightened in New Hampshire, with Clinton leading by only 2 to 3 percentage points in our forecast.

If Clinton lost New Hampshire but won her other firewall states, each candidate would finish with 269 electoral votes, taking the election to the House of Representatives.

Or maybe not — if Clinton also lost the 2nd Congressional District of Maine, where polls show a tight race and where the demographics are unfavorable to her, Trump would win the Electoral College 270-268, probably despite losing the popular vote.

==========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

========

Is Virginia in the bag for Hillary?

November 4, 2016

Based on recent history, I think not.

========

Yesterday we posted results from a Hampton College poll that had Trump pulling to within 3 points of Clinton … after trailing by double digits just a week or so again.

image

I have no idea whether Hampton College polls are credible, or not.

But, the most recent results brought to mind the 2014 Senate race between incumbent Democrat Mark Warner and former RNC head Ed Gillespie.

As Nate Silver put it:

Everything favored Warner.

He’d raised considerably more money than Gillespie and won overwhelmingly in 2008.

Gillespie — while an experienced political hand as the former head of the Republican National Committee — had never run for public office before.

Source

Right before the election, the polls had Warner up by about 9 points.

Gillespie was closing, but the gap was big.

image

========

So, what was the outcome?

(more…)

Poll: Trump up by 3 in Virginia

November 3, 2016

From the pollsters at Hampton College:

image

The latest Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP) poll reveals that the FBI’s decision to reopen the Hillary Clinton email investigation may have triggered a boost for Donald Trump with likely voters in Virginia.
  
Democratic Presidential nominee Clinton had a two point lead before the email news story broke on Friday Oct. 28.

She is now trailing three points behind Republican Presidential nominee Trump.

Trump has erased a 12 point deficit reported by the CPP in early October. 

This is the first time Clinton has trailed in the CPP polls this year.

The latest poll was conducted Oct. 26-30.

When Virginians were asked if the election were held today, 44 percent of those surveyed would vote for Trump and 41 percent would choose Clinton,

==========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

=========

Why the FBI probe will take some time (if DOJ does squash it) ….

November 3, 2016

The lingering question is “intent”.

=========

Let’s connect a couple of dots today …

I’ve been wondering why Comey re-opened the email investigation, why it will take awhile to resolve itself, and what the outcome will be.

A couple of occurrences brought things into focus for me.

=======

First, my son and I were chatting about how the Clintons always push to the legal edge of the law (or further), but don’t leave many fingerprints… and certainly no smoking guns.

I opined that they’re like the mob bosses who direct activities with ambiguity and deniability.

You know, like the “it would be too bad if he had an accident” line used to order a hit.

=======

The 2nd occurrence was Obama weighing in on Comey yesterday for being premature in issuing his letter and reprimanding that “it’s not the way we do things around here.”

image

Hmmm.

How do “we” do things around here?

=======

Got me thinking back to Comey’s July non sequitur ruling: she broke the law … no direct evidence of intent … so, no charges.

Since then, it has become clear that the law in question does not require proof of intent.

To the contrary, it was written so that intent would be immaterial

So, where did Comey get the idea?

(more…)

Are Catholics (finally) finding religion?

November 2, 2016

Trump is leading by 9 points among Catholics.

======

A few weeks ago, WikiLeaks posted some emails in which senior Clinton staffers disparaged Catholics,

At the time I wondered if the disses would be a wake-up call to Catholic.

Apparently, the answer is “yes”

Trump has now opened up a sizable lead with Catholics … and with Protestants (which I assume includes Evangelicals)

catholics-finding-religion

======

Just in case you missed it, here’s our original post that covered the purloined emails:

The Last Acceptable Prejudice …

One of the WiliLeaks — that didn’t get much attention —  caught my attention:

Clinton’s senior staffers exchanged several emails that mocked the Catholic church, referring to it as a Middle Ages dictatorship”.

Hmmm.

Raises a couple of questions …

(more…)

Poll Shocker: Trump up by 6 in LA Times tracking poll …

November 2, 2016

IBD: dead heat  …  WaPo: Trump +1

=========

LAT: Trump +6 … beyond the 95% confidence level

image

=========

IBD: Race tied

image

=========

WaPo-ABC: Trump +1 (was Clinton +12 last week)

image

=========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

=========

WaPo Poll: Republicans are “coming home”

November 1, 2016

… and, some Dems are jumping ship.

=========

A snippet from the WaPo’s poll analysis:

Consolidation for Trump within his own party has been one part of the post-FBI dynamic:

Trump has gone from a low of 82 percent support among Republicans early in the tracking period to 89 percent now, his high.

Clinton, meanwhile has gone from a high of 90 percent support among Democrats to 87 percent now.

The latest results mark the first time in tracking that Trump has had numerically higher support among Republicans than Clinton’s among Democrats, 89 vs. 87 percent.

Adding in ideology, the tracking poll shows Clinton going from 95 percent support among liberal Democrats early in the tracking poll to 88 percent now.

Trump’s gone from 89 percent among conservative Republicans to 94 percent now.

=========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

=========

NY Times: FBI clears Trump of Russian ties …

November 1, 2016

… and, says Russian hacking intended to disrupt election, not boost Trump

========

Trying to shift attention off Weiner’s email stash, Team Clinton started flashing the Russian shiny object yesterday:

You know, Trump and Putin are in collusion.

Well, even the Dem newspaper of record – the NY Times – concedes that there’s no “there” there.

image

Here’s the relevant snippet from the Times article …

(more…)

RCP: Trump closes to 2.4 points

November 1, 2016

HomaFiles poll-of-polls: dead heat.

============

image

=======

HomaFiles (HFS) tracks IBD (most accurate in 2012), LA Times (4th most accurate in 2012)  and WaPo (adds balance from the left) …

HFS average: dead heat.

image

==========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

=========

When will Obama pardon Clinton?

November 1, 2016

… and a couple of other pivotal questions.

======

Disclaimer: I’m not an attorney and don’t offer legal advice …. just personal opinions and an occasional fact!

========

Pivotal Questions

1) To Hillary: Will you accept the results of the election?

Of course, she has to answer to the affirmative since she blasted Trump for insinuating that the election might be rigged.

Funny when the shoe is on the other foot …

But, you can bet that she’ll fight the results tooth-and-nail if she loses.

========

2) To Hillary: Will you accept the FBI’s decision to indict (or not)?

Hmm.

Likely answer: I’ll continue to cooperate with the FBI, and will continue to vigorously defend my innocence.

========

3) Legal question: Once elected, can Clinton be indicted?

Not as straightforward as it sound.

According to former Judge Andrew Napolitano (Libertarian, Fox contributor, matriculated at Princeton when I was there):

Civil actions against a President can be pursued during a President’s tenure (e.g. Paula Jones vs. Bill Clinton), but criminal charges are suspended until a President leaves office.

image

My read: If elected, she can be indicted between now and Inauguration Day …. but, after being sworn in, she can’t be indicted until she leaves office … either voluntarily or involuntarily (2-terms, voted out or impeached)

========

4) To Hillary: If elected and then indicted, will you pardon yourself?

It is her legal right to pardon herself, whether or not an indictment is handed down.

That is, she can pro-actively issue a pardon to herself to stop proceedings and avert a prospective indictment.

Of course, such a pardon is likely to cause political repercussions, hinder her Presidency and taint her legacy.

========

5) To Hillary: If elected and then indicted, will you resign?

Answer: “You gotta be kidding”

========

6) To Obama: Will you pardon Clinton and her posse?

Likely answer: I have faith in their innocence and the legal system … blah, blah, blah.

Real answer: Of course I will.

========

7) To Obama: If you do pardon Clinton, when will you do it?

My bet: 4 scenarios ….

If Trump takes a sizable lead in the next couple of days, Obama will do nothing and hang Hillary out to dry.

If  Hillary takes a lead, Obama will count on the Dem turnout machine and do nothing … until the election is complete.

If Trump takes a significant lead, Obama will swing for the fences and pardon her this week “for the good of the country”.

If Hillary gets elected, Obama will immediately pardon her … again, “for the good of the country”.

If Hillary doesn’t get elected, she’s on her own.

========

8) Legal question: Can Congress continue to investigate emailgate regardless of the FBI decision or results of the election?

You bet … a GOP controlled Congress will continue to dog Clinton if she gets elected … but let it drop if Trump wins.

========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

========

LA Times: Trump +4 post-FBI announcement.

October 31, 2016

The LA Times poll – 4th most accurate in 2012 – had the race tied a week ago.

Now, it’s Trump 47, Clinton 43 …

image

==========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

=======

Stop saying that Comey’s action is unprecedented …

October 31, 2016

There was an election season DOJ action that’s partially responsible for the mess we have now.

======

My conclusion in July was that Comey ruled illogically because he didn’t want to be responsible for  tilting a potentially historic election.

But, WikiLeaks revelations and an internal agents’ revolt left him no choice but to re-open the case. It was becoming clearer by the day that he (not the FBI agents!) blotched the case.

Now,  left-leaners are crying “foul” … asserting that the DOJ shouldn’t get involved in cases involving high profile candidates in the run-up to an election … especially if the charges are as “trivial” as carelessly handling  our nation’s top secret information.

Say, what?

Memo to Comey: It was DOJ action that changed the course of our nation in 2008 — giving us, for example, ObamaCare.

Flashback to 2008 … you know, the year that Barack Obama was elected.

Well, the DOJ didn’t indict Sen. John McCain for anything … or, overtly pave the way for Obama’s election …. but  the DOJ did tilt the scales in a defining way.

Who did they indict?

image

=======

The DOJ indicted Alaska’s Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican senator in U.S. history. He was indicted during his 2008 re-election campaign.

What were the charges, what were the implications, and how was the case ultimately resolved?

(more…)

Our poll-of-polls: Dead heat !

October 31, 2016

Bottom line: Trump seems to have gotten a 2 to 3 point bounce from the FBI action … pulling even with Clinton.

===========

Recap: WaPo & IBD have Clinton still up by 1 point … LA Times has Trump up 2 … average = dead heat.

 

image

 

image

 

LA Times / USC

image

=========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

=======

Alt + Control + Undelete <= updated

October 30, 2016

Quick takes on the FBI re-opening Hillary-gate ….

=======

Irony

Ironic that somebody who BleachBit 33,000 subpoenaed emails is now ranting the virtues of transparency.

Also ironic: a campaign that has centered on an opponent’s sexual indiscretions is rocked by revelations from another sexual indiscretion case involving a Weiner (that isn’t Bill’s).

P.S. Reports are that many of the 10,000+ emails are from the deleted 33,000 … perhaps, in the spirit of transparency, Hillary should release the 33,000 … gotta believe that there’s a stash of them somewhere.

=======

U-turn

After months of praising Comey’s impartiality and courage … Team Hillary now is complaining that he’s a political hack.

I guess that the original Grandma Homa was right: what goes around, comes around.

=======

Conspiracy

Conspiracy from the left: Predictable rants that Comey was just lying in wait to pounce at the right time and help Trump

Score that one far-fetched.

Conspiracy from the right:  Chatter that the FBI action is simply to draw attention away from bigger sins, e.g  the “Bill Clinton, Inc.) revelations of egregious pay-to-play – shaking down countries & companies for special state department treatment.

Score that one fetched.

Conspiracy from right: AG Lynch trying to squash investigation to protect Hillary.

Score that one certain since multiple sources report it.

=======

The Issue

Finding more classified info doesn’t move the case forward.

So, Comey must think there’s either evidence of intent … or lying to the FBI.

Remember, it was the latter that put Scooter Libby in jail during the the Watergate fiasco.

Update: Huma told FBI that she had turned over all personal devices with the Hillary emails.

Oops.

========

Likely outcome

Huma will get thrown under the bus (or, jump under the bus) and take the fall for mis-handling classified info … clear proof that she moved classified info to a non-secure system … and proof that  she fibbed to the FBI.

That won’t close the investigation … don’t forget that a video emerged of Hillary lecturing State Department personnel that using personal email for State business is a violation of policy and a crime if there’s classified info.  No number of “can’t recall” claims neutralize that one.  She knew it was a crime and did it anyway.  Comey can’t ignore that.

Hillary Clinton will be the first candidate to be elected President while under FBI investigation.

President Obama will pardon her on or about November 9 “for the good of the country”.

Keep in mind that Wiki revealed that Obama emailed Clinton on her private server address … sometimes using a Carlos-Danger-like alias.  OK, maybe he didn’t notice the email address, but … using an alias?  It’s in the President’s to pardon Hillary and stop the investigation.

When the pardon is issued, about half of the country will agree with Trump that the system is rigged.

========

Another shoe to drop?

I’m still expecting WikiLeaks to drop a real show-stopper.

========

You just can’t make this stuff up.

========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

========

WaPo: 12 => 6 => 4 => 2

October 29, 2016

Latest poll results before FBI re-opening of the case …

image

English translation: WaPo has reduced over-weighting of Dems in their headline numbers.

So, the answer is …

image

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

======

Alt + Control + Undelete

October 29, 2016

Quick takes on the FBI re-opening Hillary-gate ….

=======

Irony

Ironic that somebody who BleachBit 33,000 subpoenaed emails is now ranting the virtues of transparency.

Also ironic: a campaign that has centered on an opponent’s sexual indiscretions is rocked by revelations from another sexual indiscretion case involving a Weiner (that isn’t Bill’s).

P.S. Reports are that many of the 10,000+ emails are from the deleted 33,000 … perhaps, in the spirit of transparency, Hillary should release the 33,000 … gotta believe that there’s a stash of them somewhere.

=======

U-turn

After months of praising Comey’s impartiality and courage … Team Hillary now is complaining that he’s a political hack.

I guess that the original Grandma Homa was right: what goes around, comes around.

=======

Conspiracy

Conspiracy from the left: Predictable rants that Comey was just waiting in hiding to pounce at the right time and help Trump

Score that one far-fetched.

Conspiracy from the right?:  Chatter that the FBI action is simply to draw attention away from bigger sins, e.g  the “Bill Clinton, Inc.) revelations of egregious pay-to-play – shaking down countries & companies for special state department treatment.

Score that one fetched.

Conspiracy from right: AG Lynch trying to squash investigation to protect Hillary.

Score that one certain since multiple sources report it.

=======

The Issue

Finding more classified info doesn’t move the case forward.

So, Comey must think there’s either evidence of intent … or lying to the FBI.

Remember, it was the latter that put Scooter Libby in jail during the the Watergate fiasco.

Update: Huma told FBI that she had turned over all personal devices with the Hillary emails.

Oops.

========

Likely outcome

Huma will get thrown under the bus (or, jump under the bus) and take the fall for mis-handling classified info … clear proof that she moved classified info to a non-secure system … and proof that  she fibbed to the FBI.

That won’t close the investigation … don’t forget that a video emerged of Hillary lecturing State Department personnel that using personal email for State business is a violation of policy and a crime if there’s classified info.  No number of “can’t recall” claims neutralize that one.  She knew it was a crime and did it anyway.  Comey can’t ignore that.

Hillary Clinton will be the first candidate to be elected President while under FBI investigation.

President Obama will pardon her on or about November 9 “for the good of the country”.

Keep in mind that Wiki revealed that Obama emailed Clinton on her private server address … sometimes using a Carlos-Danger-like alias.  OK, maybe he didn’t notice the email address, but … using an alias?  It’s in the President’s to pardon Hillary and stop the investigation.

When the pardon is issued, about half of the country will agree with Trump that the system is rigged.

========

Another shoe to drop?

I’m still expecting WikiLeaks to drop a real show-stopper.

========

You just can’t make this stuff up.

========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

========

WaPo: “Err, let’s call it 4 points, not 6”

October 28, 2016

Update to this morning’s post …

=======

Hot off the Washington Post presses …

image

========

P.S. Amazon misses earnings forecast … and warns that operating income may fall to zero.

Not a good day for Jeff Bezos ….

image

=========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

========

WaPo: “Forget 12 points, maybe it’s only 6″

October 28, 2016

Can a race change that much in 3 days?

=======

Earlier in the week, we tried to make sense of the WaPo-ABC poll that had Clinton leading by 12 … while IBD – the most accurate poll in 2012 had the race tied.

The 12 points just didn’t smell right.

Well, guess what?

WaPo-ABC is out with new poll results halving the Clinton lead to 6 points.

 

image

========

So, what happened between Monday and Wednesday?

Not much as well as I can tell, except ….

WaPo-ABC juggled with their party weightings.

A couple of days ago, only 27% of likely voters were Republican … now it’s 29%.

That accounts for some (less than 2) of the 6 points.

The rest?

Can’t tell … they don’t report the details for voter preference by party, gender, race, etc.

=========

What are the other polls saying?

(more…)

Psst: Did you catch what Trump said about Amazon?

October 27, 2016

During the preamble to his Gettysburg Address …

Trump lashed out at his “accusers” and said he was going to sue them.

Said he’ wouldn’t allow the AT&T – Time Warner deal to get approved … because of a concentration of power.

Of course, his opposition was not because CNN is a part of the deal.

 

image

 I haven’t seen press mentions of a 3rd Trump lash out …

(more…)

More about the 12 point spread between WaPo and IBD polls ….

October 26, 2016

Bottom line: The devil is indeed in the details.

=======

Let’s get really numbers geeky today ….

To satisfy, my curiosity, I dug a bit deeper into the 12 point difference between the recent Washington Post – ABC Poll (Clinton +12) and the historically accurate IBD poll (race tied).

image

========

Avid Trump supporters claim  that WaPo over-sampled Dems … boosting Hillary’s numbers.

Break that into 2 parts: (1) Did WaPo over-sample Dems? (2) More generally, does over-sampling matter?

First, let’s draw a distinction between “over-sampling” and “over-weighting”.

Over-sampling means surveying more people in a particular group than their proportionate share of the population.

Over-weighting is disproportionately counting folks in a particular group when compiling an overall total.

Specifically, IBD says that it polls Democrats, Republicans and Independents in roughly the same numbers.

In other words, they over-sample Republicans and Independents since more than 1/3 of likely voters are Democrats (or, so they say).

But, IBD corrects for the over-sampling by re-weighting based on population proportions derived by separate studies called “enumeration surveys”.

Specifically, the IBD poll weights Democrats 36%, Republicans 30% and Independents 34%, assuming that mix is representative of likely voter turnout.

Note: overall, headline total numbers are highly sensitive to these turnout assumptions.  Since roughly 85% of folks typically vote for their party’s nominee, each point shift in the turnout assumptions changes the weighted average by almost a point.  And, these turnout ratios are derived outside of surveys based on the enumeration studies and political analysis.

As near as I can tell, the WaPo turnout weightings are about the same as IBD’s … maybe a couple of points more skewing to the Dems … maybe accounting for 2 or 3 of the 12 points.

No big deal.

=======

Digging deeper is where things start to get really interesting.

(more…)

Holy WikiLeaks: Team Clinton has been dinking with the polls …

October 25, 2016

If you get all of your news from the MSM, you might have missed this one.

=======

As loyal readers know, I’ve been trying to figure out why there is such a wide range in poll results.

At the extremes, the Washington Post has Clinton up by 12 … and IBD – the most accurate poll in the last Presidential campaign – is calling the race a dead heat.

clip_image002

I can understand a couple of points of difference … but, a 12 point spread ????

=======

Well, courtesy of WikiLeaks, here’s a partial explanation…

 

=======

According to ZeroHedge.com

One of the leaked emails reveals that Team Clinton had an active program in place to consult with pollsters in an effort to “manufacture” data in order to “maximize what we (the Clinton campaign) get out of our media polling.”

Note the key word: “media” … as in Washington Post, ABC, NBC, Huff Post … the usual band of suspects.

Specifically, they coached media pollster how to “oversample” certain groups that tend to be more favorable to Clinton:

Think: Democrats, minorities, urbanites, West Coasters, Native Americans, etc.

The purloined email even attaches a handy, 37-page guide with poll-rigging recommendations.

Check out the ZeroHedge.com article to see the email, the attachment, the names of the key players and, most important, an analysis of why this matters.

Bottom line: if a candidate gets a large share of a specific group and that group is over-sampled (say more Democrats), then the candidate’s poll results get a bump.

I can understand why a campaign would want to juice the numbers – to build supporters’ enthusiasm and to get opponents discouraged.

But, I don’t understand why the media outlets would put themselves out on such a public limb.

Eventually, the actual results will be known and any shenanigans will come out in the wash.

Maybe these guys don’t care.

A classic case of ends justifying the means I guess.

========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

========