Archive for the ‘2016 Campaign’ Category

The limits of data analytics …

January 19, 2017

Team Clinton worshipped at the altar and got burned.

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Lots of post-election articles about how the Clinton campaign got fixated on their data-rich electorate models, using them to allocate ad dollars, deploy field workers and schedule “market visits” by Hillary and her surrogates.

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What Team Clinton seemed to have forgotten is the old Reagan adage: trust but verify.

The data models – which worked near-flawlessly for Obama – took stage as “shiny objects” that led the Clinton campaign astray.

Politico reported a case study that  illustrated the point …

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IBD: “Trump lead widens to 2”

November 7, 2016

Reminder: IBD was the most accurate poll in 2012.*

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Sub-headline: “His biggest lead yet”

Nit-pick: More precisely, it’s 2.4 points

Partisan split: Roughly equal representation of Democrats, Republicans and Independents

Noteworthy: Still over 5% are “not sure”

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* According to Nate Silver:

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Is “Make America Great Again” trademarked?

May 10, 2016

You bet “Make America Great Again”  is trademarked.

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And, no surprise, the trademark registration reads …

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OK, that’s to be expected.

But, here are a couple of wrinkles that may surprise you …

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Michael Goodwin: It’s time for Trump …

March 22, 2016

Michael Goodwin is a NY Post writer … says that he’s a Democrat who voted for Obama in 2008.

Over the weekend, he wrote an editorial titled Why it’s time for a Trump revolution .

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I think that Goodwin does a poignant job cutting to the chase.

His basic tenet: “Contempt for Trump reflects contempt for his working-class white support.”

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Trump: “Christie is a complete tool”

March 3, 2016

OK, he didn’t really say it … but, he might as well have.

Granted, it was a masterful coup by the Donald.

Little Marco made him squirm during the debate.

12 hours later, Trump takes all of the wind out of Rubio’s sail by rolling out (<= pun intended) Gov. Christie with an endorsement.

A clever play by Trump … a moment of reclamation for Christie?

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Err, not so fast …

Did you notice how quickly Christie got banished … by Trump … by the media … and by his now-former supporters?

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It’s hard to stop bullying if the bullies keep winning …

March 2, 2016

Years ago, my sons’ high school headmaster (aka. “principal”) launched a program aimed at civility.

He was concerned that kids were becoming disrespectful to adults … and to each other.

Most parents thought the idea was a bit quirky… students had no idea what he was talking about.

The guy eventually got canned when he allowed police into the school to arrest some kids who were peddling drugs … a rather uncivil behavior. (Parents thought that letting police into the school was uncivil …)

My take: the guy was a couple of decades ahead of his time.

Fast forward to today.

As near as I can tell, the anti-bullying campaigns and rhetoric have been largely pushed to the back burner … only being cameoed when there is a teen tragedy directly linked to bullying.

Why is that happening?

Simple.

The bullies keep emerging as winners … and winning beats losing.

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Case in point: Donald J. Trump.

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So far, the best line of the campaign …

March 1, 2016

When Trump is ridiculing, he’s just mean-spirited.

My beef: he doesn’t make me laugh.

I think the new Marco delivers some pretty funny lines … with great timing and cadence.

Of course, most of his material is cooked up by his writers.

A comedian’s true meddle is tested extemporaneously.

My view: Marco scored in a recent Virginia rally.

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A heckler was shouting that Rubio was an empty suit.

“At least it’s not a Trump suit that’s made in China.”

Not bad …

When the heckler continued, Rubio hit him with a haymaker:

“Ladies and gentlemen, meet the valedictorian from Trump University.”

Great line. Great timing.

click to view

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A couple of post-New Hampshire snapshots…

February 11, 2016

Cruz, Bush & Rubio were only separated by about 1 percentage point and each of the 3 walked away with the same number of delegates.

Kamikaze Christie trailed Rubio by more than 3 percentage points and headed back to NJ with no delegates …

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Bernie Sanders shot some hoops before his victory speech.

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Whatever Bernie eats, I want some.

That dude has stamina ….

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And, a couple of pics that sum up the final election ….

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Math Trix: So, exactly how lucky is Hillary?

February 4, 2016

I know that this doesn’t matter from a political perspective… Bernie stands zero chance of winning the nomination.

But I think that the math is interesting … made me dust off my recollections of combinatorial probabilities.

Just in case you’ve been asleep for the past couple of days (or get all of your news from the NY Times), Hillary squeaked by Bernie in Iowa … I mean, really squeaked.

The ending tally was that Hillary got credit for 701 delegates and Bernie got credit for 697.

How those final totals were concocted is very interesting.

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Here’s the scoop … and the stats.

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What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?

January 28, 2016

Here’s an interesting twist: what if Michael Bloomberg runs as a 3rd party candidate and siphons some electoral votes from, say Clinton and Trump, keeping them both from attaining the  necessary 270 electoral votes.

Could create a very interesting situation.

bloomberg, mike

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So, what happens if none of the presidential candidates gets 270 electoral votes?

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Hispanics are down on Donald, but he may be holding 93 million Trump cards …

September 1, 2015

Everybody knows that Trump can’t win because he alienated Hispanics by saying that he’d build the wall and send illegals back to their home countries … where they can queue up to enter the U.S. legally.

For a typical pindit argument, see Business Insider  “Donald Trump may be dooming the GOP with a 10% chunk of the electorate”

Need data?

A recent Gallup poll has Trump’s favorability with Hispanics “underwater” by a whooping 51 points … that is, the spread between Hispanics viewing him favorably and those viewing him unfavorably is 51 points.

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Pundits assert confidently that Trump can’t win because a candidate unless he is competitive with Hispanics … and Trump isn’t close to being competitive.

Not so fast, pundits …

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Dems: An unstoppable 2016 ticket …

August 20, 2015

I hate to help the Dems, but I can tell them how to win when Hillary finishes her implosion.

Cutting to the chase, it’s  by running Biden for President with Obama for VP.

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Before you dismiss the idea out-of-hand, let me explain …

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Politics: “Anti-Hillary stunt backfires on Carly Fiorina” … oh, really?

May 29, 2015

The above is from the  Daily Kos (except the “oh, really?” part).

I beg to differ with the reliably lib rag.

I think Carly landed some punches and precursored what the summer might look like …

 

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Here’s what caught my eye … why I think it’s important … and, a prediction.

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