#5 – Why I’m lukewarm to climate change…

Reason #5: Temperature readings – plus or minus.

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I’m neither a denier nor a zealot …  so, according to British writer (& phrase-coiner) Matt Ridley, I’m a “lukewarmer”.

In a prior posts, I covered: (1) Unsettling science (2) Expired doomsday predictions (3) The “97% of scientists” baloney and (4) Dinking with the data .

Let’s move on…

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Reason #5: Temperature readings – plus or minus.

Let’s start with a personal story….

image

Last week I had an air conditioning problem that I isolated to the thermostat … specifically, the themometer’s digital thermometer.

For openers, I showed the HVAC repair guy my handy portable digital thermometer that was reading 73 degrees … and pointed to the thermostat which was reading 76 degrees.

He reached into his bag and pulled out “truth” … a fancy electronic gadget that measures temperatures precisely (or so the guy said).

Guess what … “truth” read 74 degrees.

OK, so which was the real temperature?

The guy’s response: “Best we hope for is getting these things within a couple of degrees of each other.”

Really?

We couldn’t get a $1,000 space-age thermostat, a personal digital thermometer (reading temps out to 1 decimal place) … and, of course, the HVAC guys “truth” meter to agree.

Hmmm.

Climate zealots are confidently reporting temperatures for back 100 years ago (when digital thermometers didn’t even exist).

And, they’re confidently forecasting temperatures out a hundred years from now within 1 degree Centigrade.

Think about that for a second …

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An in-home test

Next time you or a family member is sick, take the sick person’s temperature at 3 minute intervals for, say, 30 minutes.

You’re likely to get temperature variations greater than the forecasted increase in global temperatures over the next 100 years.

And, for real fun … take the sick person’s temperature using an oral thermometer, then an under-the arm thermometer and, finally, a butt thermometer.

Then, scratch your head when you get different readings.

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Bottom line:

A lot of the climate research is based on temperature measurements (past and current) whose precision is more apparent than real. 

In fact, “researchers conclude that “the current generation of electronic, digital clinical thermometers, in general, may not be sufficiently accurate or reliable” for scientific measurements. Source

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One Response to “#5 – Why I’m lukewarm to climate change…”

  1. SJ Says:

    Definitely temperature estimates going back hundreds of years are not reliable, and may not be sufficient to show are meaningful trend.

    Plus, any predictive model assumes the values of many variables to make it run, which increases the margin of error. The bottom line: how can they predict a temperature value for the future without a potential margin of error that makes any prediction meaningless?

    Just look at the huge misses of election polls and stock market predictions, which supposedly are simpler, closer systems much easier to predict based on statistical modelling.

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