Nums: Somebody explain this gender gap thing to me …

The numbers just don’t square with the narrative.

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OK, I understand the simple explanation:

Clinton can make history as the first woman President.

Trump is a crude billionaire playboy.

Women are sensible and sensitive.

Men are … well they’re men.

So, it makes sense that Trump leads by 11 points among men … and Clinton leads by 13 points among women.

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FoxNews Poll Nov. 4

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But, digging a little deeper into the numbers, things get a bit confusing…

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The common punditry is that Trump’s biggest problem is with suburban women.

The numbers seem to support that … Clinton leads by 13 points among suburban women.

image

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But …

Trump has a 9 point lead among white women.

image

Something seems out of kilter.

Aren’t the vast majority of suburban women white ?

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Let’s add another piece to the puzzle:

Overall, Clinton wins Urban voters by 24 points; Trump wins Rural voters by 19 points.

Digressing a bit: this is probably good news for Trump since the Urbans are clustered in states that are unshakably blue … the battlegrounds are mostly rural and working class whites.

Clinton edges Trump in the Suburbs, but only by 4 points.

image

So …

For Trump to lead among white women, but trail among suburban women then … either

(1) there are a LOT of black women in the suburbs – enough to sway the numbers … or

(2) rural women (presumed to be mostly white) must vastly out number suburban white women.

Something just doesn’t square here … the nums just don’t seem to tie to the narratives.

What’s up?

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P.S.  If Trump is losing big among suburban women and Clinton has only a slight lead among total suburbanites …. that means that suburban men must be supporting Trump “big league”.

Are lots of married couple splitting their votes?

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#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

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