Based on recent history, I think not.
Yesterday we posted results from a Hampton College poll that had Trump pulling to within 3 points of Clinton … after trailing by double digits just a week or so again.
I have no idea whether Hampton College polls are credible, or not.
But, the most recent results brought to mind the 2014 Senate race between incumbent Democrat Mark Warner and former RNC head Ed Gillespie.
As Nate Silver put it:
Everything favored Warner.
He’d raised considerably more money than Gillespie and won overwhelmingly in 2008.
Gillespie — while an experienced political hand as the former head of the Republican National Committee — had never run for public office before.
Right before the election, the polls had Warner up by about 9 points.
Gillespie was closing, but the gap was big.
So, what was the outcome?
Well, Warner ended up winning a squeaker … less than 1 percentage point of difference … it took a couple of days to certify the results.
Ed Gillespie – not exactly a household name — beat the polls by 8 points against a relatively popular incumbent Senator.
Virginia may be back in play.
We’ll see next Tuesday.
P.S. Something else to watch …
On election night in 2014, Gillespie was leading Warner until late reporting Fairfax County weighed in.
Northern Virginia (just outside DC) has lots of government employees who like the idea of a big government payroll (on which they reside) and who vote reliably Democratic.
But, included in the government pool, are a lot of FBI folks.
If rumors are true that FBI rank & file agents are upset with Comey’s July pronouncement and the DOJ interaction with the Clinton campaign, then …
Northern Virginia may not be as reliably Democratic as in past years.
Add to that, incumbent Congresswoman Barbara Comstock is in a re-election battle. That lady hustles more than any candidate I’ve ever seen at any level. Though she has distanced herself from Trump, she’ll pull a lot of NoVA “Rs” to the polls.
One more thing:
A long time ago, before we moved to the DC area, a DC-based friend observed “In DC, our local news is the national news”.
Keen insight that stuck in my memory.
So, most folks in the NoVA area are at least aware that Hillary is the subject of 2 major FBI investigations.
They may dismiss them as unsubstantiated or immaterial (since the ends justify the means, right?) … but, they’re at least aware.
May cause some people a bit of angst when it’s time to pull the lever.
At a minimum, they lose their right to whine when corruption weighs against their causes … and, their ends are revealed to be simply campaign rhetoric … you know, the “public view” thing.
And, someday it will …