Can a race change that much in 3 days?
Earlier in the week, we tried to make sense of the WaPo-ABC poll that had Clinton leading by 12 … while IBD – the most accurate poll in 2012 had the race tied.
The 12 points just didn’t smell right.
Well, guess what?
WaPo-ABC is out with new poll results halving the Clinton lead to 6 points.
So, what happened between Monday and Wednesday?
Not much as well as I can tell, except ….
WaPo-ABC juggled with their party weightings.
A couple of days ago, only 27% of likely voters were Republican … now it’s 29%.
That accounts for some (less than 2) of the 6 points.
Can’t tell … they don’t report the details for voter preference by party, gender, race, etc.
What are the other polls saying?
IBD had the race even at the start of week … but now has Hillary leading by 3.
The LA Times survey –- 4th most accurate in 2012 –- has Trump up by 2 and gaining steam.
You can pick your favorite … we’ll keep watching.
P.S. Given a psyche dynamic called “confirmation bias” ….
If you’re pro-Hillary you still love WaPo (and always have) but are worried that’s it’s suddenly getting honest … and, you’re starting to think you were wrong pooh-poohing the LAT survey earlier in the week since it’s starting to make sense now.
If you’re pro-Trump (or anti-Hillary) .. then you like the WaPo trend line …. and, think that the LAT survey is truth: Trump leading and gaining steam.