Holy WikiLeaks: Team Clinton has been dinking with the polls …

If you get all of your news from the MSM, you might have missed this one.

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As loyal readers know, I’ve been trying to figure out why there is such a wide range in poll results.

At the extremes, the Washington Post has Clinton up by 12 … and IBD – the most accurate poll in the last Presidential campaign – is calling the race a dead heat.

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I can understand a couple of points of difference … but, a 12 point spread ????

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Well, courtesy of WikiLeaks, here’s a partial explanation…

 

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According to ZeroHedge.com

One of the leaked emails reveals that Team Clinton had an active program in place to consult with pollsters in an effort to “manufacture” data in order to “maximize what we (the Clinton campaign) get out of our media polling.”

Note the key word: “media” … as in Washington Post, ABC, NBC, Huff Post … the usual band of suspects.

Specifically, they coached media pollster how to “oversample” certain groups that tend to be more favorable to Clinton:

Think: Democrats, minorities, urbanites, West Coasters, Native Americans, etc.

The purloined email even attaches a handy, 37-page guide with poll-rigging recommendations.

Check out the ZeroHedge.com article to see the email, the attachment, the names of the key players and, most important, an analysis of why this matters.

Bottom line: if a candidate gets a large share of a specific group and that group is over-sampled (say more Democrats), then the candidate’s poll results get a bump.

I can understand why a campaign would want to juice the numbers – to build supporters’ enthusiasm and to get opponents discouraged.

But, I don’t understand why the media outlets would put themselves out on such a public limb.

Eventually, the actual results will be known and any shenanigans will come out in the wash.

Maybe these guys don’t care.

A classic case of ends justifying the means I guess.

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4 Responses to “Holy WikiLeaks: Team Clinton has been dinking with the polls …”

  1. Damian Says:

    Gah! No! That’s not what oversampling means.

    http://www.pewresearch.org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/sampling/

  2. Sam Says:

    Prof, might want to also read this. Highlights why it’s sometimes dangerous to draw conclusions without proper context.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/24/very-bad-analysis-of-a-2008-email-is-donald-trumps-new-excuse-for-why-hes-losing/

  3. chasqui Says:

    Lies, damn lies and statistics….it ain’t that simple. I’d rather have our dear Prof. stay within his comfort zone and try to give us an estimate on how much goodwill the Trump organization lost thanks to Trump’s ill advised run, or what marketing strategies can the GOP follow in order to do away with the white hood and burning cross association that most of us “bad-hombres” have of it. Seriously, why is the GOP so anti-Hispanic even though Hispanics are a very, very natural fit?

  4. SJ Says:

    Hispanic are not a natural fit. Recent immigrants bring a very collectivist mindset from their home countries, draw from poorer backgrounds which have lower moral standards and are bombarded with propaganda by Spanish language media.

    Most native Hispanics have already being indoctrinated at public schools for generations and fed with the minority victim ideology.

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