Which poll was most accurate in the 2012 Presidential race?

The answer may surprise you … and, give some of you heartburn.

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The most reported polling result is probably the RealClearPolitics poll-of-polls … the average across the hal-dozen or so polls that RCP deems to be the most credible.

In 2012, the RCP average just before the election – the purple line below — pegged Obama’s lead at about 1 point.

Obama ended up winning by about 4 points.

That’s a pretty big miss.

image

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The poll that came the closest according to RCP was the Rand Poll  … the aqua line above.

Rand had Obama as a 3 point favorite … within a point of the final tally.

So, how come we’re not hearing about the Rand poll these days?

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Well, the Rand poll us alive and well.

But, it has been rebranded.

It’s now a poll that is oft-maligned because of its panel  methodology –- the same 2,000 or so folks are continually sampled with no ‘refreshing’ of the sample.

It’s often dismissed by many because it tends to report higher for Trump – often showing him in the lead.

So, what’s the poll and what’s it showing these days?

Yep, the USC-L.A. Times poll … which is currently showing Trump with a 1 point lead:

lat-10-17-16

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Still plenty of time before the election, but the big question:

Will the USC-LAT poll )nee Rand) repeat its 2012 closest-to-the-pin performance … or, will the “scientific statisticians” be vindicated for mocking its methodology?

We’ll know in about a month.

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#HomaFiles

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