The answer may surprise you … and, give some of you heartburn.
The most reported polling result is probably the RealClearPolitics poll-of-polls … the average across the hal-dozen or so polls that RCP deems to be the most credible.
In 2012, the RCP average just before the election – the purple line below — pegged Obama’s lead at about 1 point.
Obama ended up winning by about 4 points.
That’s a pretty big miss.
The poll that came the closest according to RCP was the Rand Poll … the aqua line above.
Rand had Obama as a 3 point favorite … within a point of the final tally.
So, how come we’re not hearing about the Rand poll these days?
Well, the Rand poll us alive and well.
But, it has been rebranded.
It’s now a poll that is oft-maligned because of its panel methodology –- the same 2,000 or so folks are continually sampled with no ‘refreshing’ of the sample.
It’s often dismissed by many because it tends to report higher for Trump – often showing him in the lead.
So, what’s the poll and what’s it showing these days?
Yep, the USC-L.A. Times poll … which is currently showing Trump with a 1 point lead:
Still plenty of time before the election, but the big question:
Will the USC-LAT poll )nee Rand) repeat its 2012 closest-to-the-pin performance … or, will the “scientific statisticians” be vindicated for mocking its methodology?
We’ll know in about a month.