Weekend MSM headlines focused on Trump’s campaign staff shake-up, not on his favorably reviewed speeches or his trip to Louisiana.
So, I wasn’t expecting any movement in the polls.
Surprise, surprise, surprise.
On Sunday, the USC-LA Times poll reported Trump in the lead.
No less than Dem-favorite pollster Nate Silver sped over to CNN to disparage the poll’s methodology.
Of course, that raised my curiosity.
Bottom line: yep, Donald over Hillary by 2 points.
Here’s what I find more interesting than the single day’s numbers ….
First, note that the USC poll seems to quickly catch the post-convention bounces for both Donald & Hillary …. and captured Trump’s slide when he went off-track on side issues.
But, look at what’s happened over the past 10 days or so.
It’s hard to miss the trend in the numbers: Hillary sliding, Donald gaining.
OK, since Silver pooh-poohs the USC poll, let’s look at the broadly respected RealClearPolitics poll-of-polls.
The levels are different –- Clinton higher, Trump lower – and Hillary still has a comfortable 5.3 point lead.
Technical note: The current RCP average includes some polls of registered voters and some of likely voters … Trump does better among likely voters … and about half of the polls are more than a week old.
But, look at the trends: Trump upward, Hillary downward … just like in the USC poll.
So, is the USC poll an outlying piece of garbage (Silver’s view) … or is it a fast-detecting canary in the coal mine?
It’ll be interesting to see how this week plays out.