OK, let’s start with the obvious: Trump had a very, very bad week … and, if I were Trump, I’d rather have Clinton’s poll results than Trump’s.
But, Trump’s campaign obit may be a bit premature.
At least one poll’s results suggest that Donald may still have a pulse.
The Reuters / IPSO poll shows a typical dissipation of Hillary’s post-convention bounce … and a statistically significant bounceback for the Donald … narrowing Clinton’s advantage to only 2.4 percentage points … within the margin of error.
Clintonites surely consider the results to be simply an outlier.
For Trumpsters, it’s a ray of hope.
Which is it?
Here are some factors to consider …
Factors to consider:
The IPSO poll is an online poll.
Traditional pollsters diss online polls as unreliable.
But, traditional phone polls have their own problems … e.g. missed big on the primaries and Brexit.
And, this year, Trump has tended to out-perform phone polls.
Theory: folks know they’ll be categorized as dummies if they say they’re voting for Trump. Online polls provide a greater sense of anonymity.
Note that he IPSO poll caught the Trump post-convention bounce … and Hillary’s YUGE post-convention bounce.
So maybe, IPSO just picks up on the swings quicker than most traditional polls.
Also note that the IPSO sample has 20% more Democrats than Republicans … an overweighting based on most estimates of party split.
That favors Hillary, right?
This week may have been a blessing in disguise for Trump.
A small downtick and it would have been business as usual.
The big jolt may have been enough to give Donald some religion … and start his campaigning like a Presidential candidate.
There’s still time, right?
As one pundit put it:
Most voters are only partially engaged in this election.
They follow politics the way that I follow the NFL season.
I am aware the Super Bowl is in January (or February), but I am not following the day-to-day, week to week rankings, games, scores and trades.
The closer we get to the playoffs, the more closely I will start paying attention.
We are in August people. There is a long way to go until November.
And, don’t forget: WikiLeaks is standing in the shadows … waiting to pounce.
The fun’s not over yet.