2016: Revenge of the unintelligensia?

Will “uneducated” voters determine the 2016 Presidential election?

=========

The most recent Washington Post poll – showing Hillary leading Donald by a couple of points — provides some very interesting drill down data … it’s worth some browsing time.

Buried in the numbers is some interesting data…..

======

MSM headlines frequently stereotype Trump’s supporters as non-college degreed whites … and often, the label is shorthanded as a more pejorative “uneducated”, i.e. mind-numbed dummies.

According to the WaPo poll, it’s true that Trump is favored by “white non-college” almost 2-to-1 … 60% to 33%

clip_image002

=======

No surprise there …

But, here are some findings that did surprise me a bit since they never gets spotlighted in the mainstream media…

=======

Based on the WaPo poll:

Donald and Hillary are statistically tied among the “white college degree” folks … in fact, Trump edges Clinton 43 to 42 in the raw data.

Technical note: WaPo doesn’t break out “non-white college degree” and doesn’t report the demographic breakdown of the survey’s sample

clip_image003

Hmmm … that’s interesting.

One reasonable interpretation: Trump’s support is not just among dummies.

========

Another finding that surprised me a bit is that Donald and Hillary are statistically tied among the “no college degree” folks … 47 to 45 … slight edge to HILLARY.

clip_image005

How can that be if Trump is favored by “white non-college” almost 2-to-1 … 60% to 33%?

Easy … but, buried in the numbers…

Clinton is favored by “non-white non-college” by over 4-to-1 … 73% to 18%.

clip_image007

You just don’t see that in the headlines much, do you?

I thought all of her supporters were savants…

========

So what?

Let’s run some numbers …

According to the 2010 Census (summary chart at end of post), there were about 200 million adults (over 25) in the U.S. …. roughly 154 million white; 46 million non-white.

As a group, 29.3% of the white adult population had a bachelor’s degree or higher … so, 70.7% didn’t … that’s about 109 million “white non-college degree” folks.

Of the 109 million, 60% are inclined to Trump … that’s about 65 million.

Of the 109 million, 33% are inclined to Hillary … that’s about 36 million.

That’s a 29 million advantage to Trump if the 109 million turn out to vote.

========

Let’s run the same numbers for Hillary …

As a group, 23.2% of the non-white adult population had a bachelor’s degree or higher … so, 76.8% didn’t … that’s about 35 million “non-white non-college degree” folks.

Of the 35 million, 78% are inclined to Hillary … that’s about 27 million.

Of the 35 million, only 18% are inclined to Trump … that’s about 6 million.

That’s a 19 million advantage to Clinton if the 35 million turn out to vote.

========

Netting the numbers out, Trump has a voting pool advantage of about 10 million non-degreed adults.

That could, in fact be determining since – according to the WaPo poll – Clinton & Trump statistically tied among the reported college-degreed folks (chart above)

Interesting …

=======

clip_image009

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s