Would your boss fire you if your project underperformed plan by 50% ?

Answer: Apparently not if your boss is President Obama …  and your project was ObamaCare.

In a conference call with reporters last week, HHS Secretary Sylvia Burwell said “We believe 10 million is a strong and realistic goal” for 2016 enrollment in ObamaCare Exchanges.  That represents an increase not significantly different from zero.

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Let’s put that number in context … and show how performance against plan is even worse than it initially appears.

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Below are the CBO’s official ObamaCare  estimates circa 2010 (after the CBO Director visited the White House for a recalibration meeting with the President).

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Note that 10 million “realistic goal” for 2016 is a 12 million miss … it’s less than half of the “sell-doc” estimate … off by 55%.

That’s a pretty big miss, and it’s not the worst part of the story.

Note that the number of uninsured was originally projected to drop to 27 million in 2015 and 21 million in 2016

 

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Well, a funny thing happened on the way to 2015-2016.

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Let’s focus on 2015 for a moment.

In 2014, the CBO published a new set of estimates, reflecting actual ObamaCare performance to date.

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Note that decrease in uninsureds was ratcheted down … and the number of non-elderly uninsureds was bumped up by 9 million – from 27 million to 36 million.

That’s a whopping 33% change to the forecast.

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Now, for 2016 …

The CBO originally estimated that we’d be down to 21 million non-elderly uninsureds in 2016.

In 2014, the CBO revised that number up to  31 million non-elderly uninsureds.

That CBO estimate included about 22 million people insured through the exchanges.

But, the HHS announcement says to expect only about 10 million.

That puts the number of likely non-elderly uninsureds up to about 43 million in 2016 … a net reduction of about 12 million from preObamaCare days.

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Let’s recap ….

Promised a reduction of over 30 million uninsureds.

Likely to get less than a 20 million reduction ….. most likely, way less.

That’s nothing to sneeze at … but, it’s also a miss of 30% to 50% … on a TRILLION DOLLAR program.

If this were an IPO, somebody would be doing a perp walk for for fraudulent offer data.

But, since it’s the government, it doesn’t even get covered by the mainstream media,

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References:

CBO’s Analysis of the Major Health Care Legislation Enacted in March 2010

Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Insurance Coverage

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