Everybody knows that Trump can’t win because he alienated Hispanics by saying that he’d build the wall and send illegals back to their home countries … where they can queue up to enter the U.S. legally.
For a typical pindit argument, see Business Insider “Donald Trump may be dooming the GOP with a 10% chunk of the electorate”
A recent Gallup poll has Trump’s favorability with Hispanics “underwater” by a whooping 51 points … that is, the spread between Hispanics viewing him favorably and those viewing him unfavorably is 51 points.
Pundits assert confidently that Trump can’t win because a candidate unless he is competitive with Hispanics … and Trump isn’t close to being competitive.
Not so fast, pundits …
Let’s look at the macro numbers.
According to Pew Research, there are about 11 million Hispanics eligible to vote.
But, consistently, only 8 million of them make it to the ballot box.
So, if Trump loses them all, he’s down 8 million votes.
That’s 6.5% of the roughly 125 million people who vote.
Obviously a problem.
Would Trump lose all 8 million Hispanic votes?
Maybe, but maybe not.
True,his favorability is 51 points underwater.
But, drilling down, that 51% Gallup number is composed of 65% who view him unfavorably (ouch!) … and 14% who view him favorably..
So conceivably, Trump is only in the hole by less than 7 million votes.
Still 7 million is a big challenge.
How can Trump make up 7 million votes?
Here’s where the pundits have it all wrong.
They’re assuming a relative constant demographic mix of voters.
Key fact: In 2012, 126 million people voted … down from 131 million in 2008.
In total, some 93 million eligible citizens did not vote in 2012. Source
That’s the pool that Trump is energizing … folks who were hacked at government but were bored by Romney and didn’t didn’t think he would make much of a difference.
They stayed home.
If Trump can really energize and mobilize 10% of those folks, he overcomes the Hispanic deficit and wins the election.
You’re in peril if count the master marketer out too soon.
What a wild & crazy year in politics … I love it for the sheer entertainment value.