Here’s a wild election scenario that you won’t see anywhere else …

First, a couple of disclaimers:

This is neither my prediction of what’s to come, nor my preference..

It’s just an oddball scenario that could conceivably happen.

 

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Bottom line:

All the pundits say that if Trump runs as a 3rd party candidate, then the GOP is toast..

I say: Not so fast …

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First a couple of assumptions:

1.  Hillary will get the Dems’ nomination … even if a video surfaces of her cross-bowing a lion..

2.  Trump will do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, but get clocked in South Carolina and other mega-Tueday states.

3  Jeb will  carpet-bomb with his uber-stockpile of campaign cash and get the GOP nomination.

4.  Trump won’t go away … his ego is too big and too many folks say that that’ll vote for him as a 3rd party candidate.

5.  Bernie Sanders (or a far left clone) will be on the ballot.

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OK, mesh those assumptions with the election oddities that I summarized in the past couple of posts:

1. While rare, 3rd party candidates have occasionally won some electoral votes.  The last was George Wallace (46 electoral votes) in 1968.

See Quick: Has any 3rd party presidential candidate ever won any electoral votes?

2 If no candidate wins 270 electoral votes (or more), than the House of Representatives elects the President – 1 vote per state delegation – from among the top 3 electoral vote-getters.

See What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?

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OK, here goes …

Assume that Jeb wins most of the reliably GOP states … but that Trump picks off a couple of them.

Then, assume that Hillary wins most (but not all) of the reliably Democrat states.

How could that happen?

Say, that Trump picks off Dem-reliable Illinois (Republican Senator who’ll be running, GOP Governor) … or New Jersey (a home game for Trump, state voted for equally bombastic Christie)

To make things more interesting – and up the odds of this scenario – assume that Sanders (or a close clone) wins a couple of the way-left-leaning states – think, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Minnesota — which has elected Jesse Ventura and Al Franken!.

Above makes it possible that no candidate gets the necessary 270 electoral votes and the election is tossed to the House-elect.

My bet: the GOP will lose seats in Congress, but maintain a majority … with a majority of that majority being establishment GOP reps.

So, a possible — but admittedly far-fetched outcome: Hillary gets a plurality of the popular and electoral votes, but Jeb gets the crown.

Imagine that ….

And, to make things even more interesting …

What if both Trump and Hillary get more popular and electoral votes than Bush … and the Congress elects Jeb President.

Could be that the 3rd place vote-getter … ends up with the keys to the White House.

Not likely, but it could happen.

And, if it does happen ,,, you heard it here first

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One Response to “Here’s a wild election scenario that you won’t see anywhere else …”

  1. Andrew L. Says:

    Or, or, with 15 months until the election we could – and this is crazy I know – come up with some better ideas about how to actually run the country. Like:
    1) Jobs are good. Jobs reduce poverty, drugs, and crime. Jobs increase insured families, health outcomes, and happiness. More jobs deliver true growth. Lets have more jobs.
    2) Massive government is bad for everyone. It’s bad for the people who pay for it, and bad for the people who work in it. Massive government loses priorities and stymies change. Massive government does fewer things than a focused government could. Let’s praise government, but narrow it to the places where it delivers the most good.
    3) We want bright minds and hard workers to want to come to America. We welcome them. We rely on them. Let’s create a path to citizenship for these people and effectively deny migration for those who disregard that path. Let’s believe in it, because unless you are native American, you immigrated her too.
    4) Education in America is broken. The cost is to high for outcomes that are too low. We protect the terrible and dont do enough to promote the teachers who are doing great. A first rate power with a second-rate education system is – eventually – a second rate power.

    And if people think that these problems are too big, they are too small to be President.

    That Donald Trump is even in the game means that the ideas at the heart of the discussion are so weak that he is relevant. We need our smart people to stop thinking about winning elections and to start thinking about how to craft and convey real ideas.

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