First, a couple of disclaimers:
This is neither my prediction of what’s to come, nor my preference..
It’s just an oddball scenario that could conceivably happen.
All the pundits say that if Trump runs as a 3rd party candidate, then the GOP is toast..
I say: Not so fast …
First a couple of assumptions:
1. Hillary will get the Dems’ nomination … even if a video surfaces of her cross-bowing a lion..
2. Trump will do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, but get clocked in South Carolina and other mega-Tueday states.
3 Jeb will carpet-bomb with his uber-stockpile of campaign cash and get the GOP nomination.
4. Trump won’t go away … his ego is too big and too many folks say that that’ll vote for him as a 3rd party candidate.
5. Bernie Sanders (or a far left clone) will be on the ballot.
OK, mesh those assumptions with the election oddities that I summarized in the past couple of posts:
1. While rare, 3rd party candidates have occasionally won some electoral votes. The last was George Wallace (46 electoral votes) in 1968.
2 If no candidate wins 270 electoral votes (or more), than the House of Representatives elects the President – 1 vote per state delegation – from among the top 3 electoral vote-getters.
OK, here goes …
Assume that Jeb wins most of the reliably GOP states … but that Trump picks off a couple of them.
Then, assume that Hillary wins most (but not all) of the reliably Democrat states.
How could that happen?
Say, that Trump picks off Dem-reliable Illinois (Republican Senator who’ll be running, GOP Governor) … or New Jersey (a home game for Trump, state voted for equally bombastic Christie)
To make things more interesting – and up the odds of this scenario – assume that Sanders (or a close clone) wins a couple of the way-left-leaning states – think, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Minnesota — which has elected Jesse Ventura and Al Franken!.
Above makes it possible that no candidate gets the necessary 270 electoral votes and the election is tossed to the House-elect.
My bet: the GOP will lose seats in Congress, but maintain a majority … with a majority of that majority being establishment GOP reps.
So, a possible — but admittedly far-fetched outcome: Hillary gets a plurality of the popular and electoral votes, but Jeb gets the crown.
Imagine that ….
And, to make things even more interesting …
What if both Trump and Hillary get more popular and electoral votes than Bush … and the Congress elects Jeb President.
Could be that the 3rd place vote-getter … ends up with the keys to the White House.
Not likely, but it could happen.
And, if it does happen ,,, you heard it here first