There’s a trite sports adage:
“When these teams get together, you can throw out the record book.”
Same holds for American Pharoah … the first horse to win the Triple Crown in 44 years.
The betting odds were in AP’s favor … part wishful excitement, part herd mentality, part “uniqueness bias” that stipulated that this horse is really different from past Triple Crown contenders.
Let’s look back at the pre-race punditry …
But, historical “base rates” were against him.
You know, the no horse since Affirmed banter.
- See HomaFiles How often do Derby & Preakness winners nail the Triple Crown?
- See Nate Silvers’s 538.com Be Skeptical of American Pharoah
And, so-called settled science was against him.
You know, the too short time between races … lactic acid … Lasix drug-doping.
- See HomaFiles American Pharoah: Odds-on favorite, but scientific long-shot …
- See Wired … “Science says that American Pharoah won’t win the triple crown” … retitled after the race to :”Whoa! American Pharoah Beats Science to Win Triple Crown”
Oh well. so much for punditry, historical base rates, and settled science.
Think about that last one for a minute … wasn’t it it was un-seasonally cool this weekend?