On Saturday, American Pharoah will try to win the Belmont — capping off his Derby & Preakness wins to capture the oft-elusive Triple Crown.
Based on Triple Crown history, what are his chances?
The simple – but very deceiving answer is 35%.
31 horses have won both the Kentucky Derby & the Preakness …
11 of them have won the Belmont and the Triple Crown.
35% … about 1 out of 3.
That’s not bad, right?
Let’s slice the numbers a little finer …
Prior to 1950, 9 horses won the Derby and Preakness … 8 of them won the Belmont and the Triple Crown.
That’s almost 90%.
Between 1950 and 1979, 10 horses won the Derby and Preakness … 3 of them won the Belmont and the Triple Crown.
Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978.
Spectacular Bid lost his shot at the Crown in 1979.
He was the first of a string of dozen horses to lose the Belmont with a shot at the Triple Crown .
To recap: chances of winning – based strictly on history – has dropped from near certainty to long, long-shot.
Some experts say that horses are now trained for specific distances, so the longer Belmont is a stretch for some horses that are tuned to the shorter Derby and Preakness distances.
Others say that horses that are trained hard for the first 2 legs of the Crown are just worn out when they get to the Belmont.
Still others point to the luck factor … that at least a couple of horses are near parity and a stumble or fast start can make a determining difference.
Despite the above, American Pharoah will likely leave the starting gate at an odds on favorite to win the Belmont and the Triple Crown … just like the prior 12 horses who failed in their bids.
Note that in 2009, Big Brown left the gates with bettors thinking he had a 76.9% chance of winning.
Big Brown finished dead last.
Good luck, AP