A couple of weeks ago, the Administration and its friends were touting that unemployment claims had dropped to historically low levels … proof positive that the pork-laden, 2009 Stimulus Spending Program worked … albeit 4 or 5 years after the program ended.
There has been a lot less chest-pounding the past couple of weeks. Wonder why?
Here’s this week’s report from the Department of Labor:
In the week ending February 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 320,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 313,000.
The 4-week moving average was 304,750, an increase of 10,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 294,500.
Let’s chart that to put it in perspective:
Since the “historical trough”, the weekly numbers have trending up … and are now at their highest point this year.
But, weekly numbers are unreliable, right?
So, let’s look at the 4-week moving average:
To my naked eye, it kinda looks like a trend.
If anybody notices, my bet is that the Administration’s rationalization will be:
(1) The numbers which were highly reliable a couple of weeks ago are now unreliable
(2) There has been uncertainty re: funding of DHS
And, the odds-on favorite
(3) Climate change: The wicked winter weather — attributable to global warming (err, I meant Climate Change) –- suppressed business activity and caused joblessness.
My bet: This will get lost in the shuffle between Hillary’s email’s and Iran’s muscle flexing.