I often confess to my students that I thought about 51% of the business decisions were correct … and that was despite my analytical pre-disposition and the benefit of a highly proficient team of managers and analysts.
Apparently, my record was about on par.
According to decision scientists Chip & Dan Heath in Decisive: How to Make Better Choices …
- 83% of mergers & acquisitions fail to create any value for shareholders.
- 60% of the executives reported that bad decisions were about as frequent as good ones [i.e. odds of a right decision are about 50 / 50]
- 40% of senior-level hires “are pushed out, fail or quit within 18 months.”
- More than half of teachers quit their jobs within four years.
Geez, might as well flip a coin, right?
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More posts coming re: the dismal record – and how to up the odds