Yum, those burgers looks good …

December 9, 2016

Adding visuals to menus (and reports) creates interest and boosts credibility.

+++++++

Studies have shown that adding  icons and photos to restaurant menus increase sales up to 30% for the featured items.

The visuals draw attention to the items … if done well, they stimulate diners’ senses.

OK, we’ve all be menu-enticed … that’s not news.

image

=======

 

But, did you know that simply adding a visual – a graph or chart  or formula — to a report can boost the credibility of a conclusion by 50% or more?

Read the rest of this entry »

What do tenured profs & Federal judges have in common?

December 8, 2016

“A permanent job with good benefits is (now) beyond reach for most American workers … only federal judges and tenured professors are insulated from the forces of workforce transformation”

That’s according to the authors of the book Working Scared (Or Not at All): The Lost Decade, Great Recession, and Restoring the Shattered American Dream

======

The book Working Scared is focused on the ways that the American workplace has changed in the past 50 or so years … and the implications on American workers (and non-workers).

clip_image002
=======

The central premise of the book is that globalization (out-sourcing & off-shoring); de-industrialization (towards more services and knowledge-based); technology-intensity (computers, internet, robots); and de-unionization have shattered the American Dream for tens of millions of working adults who are struggling or poor … “despite working hard and playing by the rules.”

More specifically …

Read the rest of this entry »

What has happened to workers who lost their jobs during the recession?

December 7, 2016

After last week’s employment numbers, Administration reps emphasized that over 12 million jobs have been added … recovering the number of jobs lost, plus a few to spare.

Predictably, conservative pundits countered that that the “mix” of jobs has deteriorated … well-paying full-time jobs have been replaced with lower paying full-time jobs and involuntary part-time jobs … with many of the added jobs going to immigrants – some legal, some not.

clip_image002

=======

Coincidentally, I started reading a book titled Working Scared (Or Not at All) … about the plight of the American worker … both old-timers who worked hard and played by the rules and newbies who are graduating with high college debt and disappointing career prospects.

The authors cut to the chase by researching the core issue: have the workers who lost their jobs bounced back?

Read the rest of this entry »

What are “prime age men” who aren’t in the labor force doing with their time ?

December 6, 2016

Yesterday, we looked at the falling labor force participation rate (LFPR) among so-called prime age males … aged 24 to 54 … a range that outboards most students and retirees.

About 10 million men fall into that category – unemployed but not looking for work.

One hypothesis is that the LFPR  among prime age males has dropped because – as women have entered the workforce – the men have stayed home to care for family members and do household chores.

According to the Fed’s latest American Time Use Survey, there’s some evidence to support that hypothesis.

In fact, “non-participating prime-age men” spend about 1/2 hour per day more on “household activities & services” than do prime age males who are in the labor force.

 

image

==========

But, that’s only a small  part of the story ….

Read the rest of this entry »

Unemployment rate falls to 4.6%, but …

December 5, 2016

More able-bodied men are sitting on their duffs …

========

The November jobs report in a nutshell: 160k jobs added, but … the adult population increased by 219k and the civilian labor force contracted by 226k … so, the labor force participation rate dropped again.

employment-dec-2016-report

It’s no secret that the Labor Force Participation — the % of able bodied adults who are employed or looking for work —  has dropped about 4-1/2 percentage points from pre-financial crisis levels … and continues to fall.

image

=======

The economy-is-doing-just-fine crowd chalks the declining rate to demographics – old-timers retiring.

In prior posts I’ve attributed about 1/3 to retirees … the rest to slackers.

To that point, let’s cut the data a different way …

Read the rest of this entry »

Forget cow tipping … there’s a new sport.

December 2, 2016

Since the election is over, the T-Day conversation at our house shifted to “cow tipping”.

So, let’s dip into the HomaFiles archive for the definitive explanation … with a twist.

=======

A news story caught my eye yesterday.

But, first some context …

Have you ever heard of “cow tipping?

It’s a ritual where drunk farm boys  sneak up on cows and tip them over.

Technical note: I have no idea why they have to be drunk, but it’s always stated that way.

image

Last year , Modern Farmer magazine published a scientific study on cow tipping.

image

Basically, Modern Farmer debunked the rural legend:

 Cow tipping, at least as popularly imagined, does not exist.

Drunk young men do not, on any regular basis, sneak into cow pastures and put a hard shoulder into a cow taking a standing snooze, thus tipping the poor animal over.

While in the history of the world there have surely been a few unlucky cows shoved to their side by gang of boozed-up morons, we feel confident in saying this happens at a rate roughly equivalent to the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series.

The evidence against cow tipping is immense, and backed up by both farmers and the laws of physics

Ignore the cheap shot at my favorite Cubbies … focus on the “boozed up morons” and the “laws of physics”.

The Modern Farmer study was provocative  enough that it was picked up by Slate.com with the following headline:

 

image

 

Uh-oh, this is where things get really interesting …

Read the rest of this entry »

In praise of math, logic, and Latin … say, what?

December 1, 2016

They are the building blocks of reasoning, problem-solving and critical thinking.

=======

The courses that I teach contain a heavy dose of problem-solving skills.

Early on, I assert my belief that that problem-solving skills can be taught – and, more importantly, learned – and set about to prove the point.

 

clip_image002

=======

I’ve been doing some summer reading on the topic of reasoning & problem-solving and learned:

“For twenty-six hundred years many philosophers and educators have been confident that reasoning could be taught.”

Read the rest of this entry »

I do my best thinking when I’m sleeping … say, what?

November 30, 2016

Discussing creativity in class, I casually mentioned that I seem to do my best thinking when I’m asleep.

Specifically, I reported that I like to get to work as soon as I jump out of bed (literally) … and that I often find myself doing a brain dump of thoughts that weren’t top of mind before I’d gone nite-nite.

The revelation initially got some chuckles … then some folks started nodding and chiming in with “me, too” variants on the story.

Of course, some remained unconvinced.

clip_image002

=======

For the skeptics, here some science …

Read the rest of this entry »

The art of storytelling and the “power of the narrative”

November 29, 2016

Trump mastered a “central truth of persuasion” … Hillary didn’t.

======

In my courses, I emphasize that pitches (think: Powerpoint decks) should be organized around storylines with smooth-flowing logic that is sufficiently compelling to lead the audience to an inescapable conclusion.

For many students, that notion doesn’t come naturally, especially since we typically think about stories in a cultural frame (movies, books, music) … not business communications..

Not only are storylines important in business communications, they are critical in political campaigns.

Just ask Mark McKinnon.

He’s a former Bush marketing adviser who followed around all of the candidates for a Showtime series called (appropriately) “The Circus”.

After 18 months on the campaign trail, McKinnon concluded:

clip_image002

More specifically, McKinnon says:

Voters are attracted to candidates who lay out a storyline.

Losing campaigns communicate unconnected streams of information, ideas, and speeches.

Winning campaigns create a narrative architecture that ties it all together into something meaningful and coherent.

Trump told a story.

Hillary didn’t.

So, how to tell a good story?

Read the rest of this entry »

Flashback: A “horrifying” assault on democracy.

November 28, 2016

Apparently, “horrification” depends on who is doing the assaulting.

=======

Let’s loop back to the N.Y. Times coverage of the 3rd Presidential debate …

In a remarkable statement that seemed to cast doubt on American democracy, Donald J. Trump said that he might not accept the results of next month’s election if he felt it was rigged against him.

Hillary Clinton blasted that stand as “horrifying” at their final and caustic debate.

The horror became a cause celebre among Dems and the MSM.

Now, let’s fast forward …

image

The details according to the WaPo:

Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign has been quietly exploring whether there was any “outside interference” in the election results and will participate in the election recount in Wisconsin initiated by Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein.

And if Stein makes good on efforts to prompt similar processes in Pennsylvania and Michigan  the Clinton campaign said it would do so there, as well.

Trump’s response:

The people have spoken and the election is over.

Hillary Clinton herself said on election night, in addition to her conceding by congratulating me, ‘We must accept this result and then look to the future.’

=======

P.S. We scoured both the Washington Post and N.Y. Times articles on Clinton’s apparent refusal to accept the certified election results.

Looking for the word “horrifying” and the phrase “American Democracy” in combination with the phrases “cast doubt on” or “attack on”, we got a “no results” message.

Shocker.

========

Happy Thanksgiving !

November 24, 2016

image

* * * * *
#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

Apple might make some iPhones in the U.S.

November 23, 2016

“Trump Effect” or security concerns?

========

Let’s connect a couple of dots today …

Last week, the NY Times ran a story exposing a secret feature on some cellphones: a backdoor that sends all text messages to China.

 

clip_image002

According to the Times:

Cyber-security firms recently discovered pre-installed software on some Android phones that monitors where users go, whom they talk to and what they write in text messages.

The software transmits the full contents of text messages, contact lists, call logs, location information and other data to a Chinese server every 72 hours.

The code comes preinstalled on phones and the surveillance is not disclosed to users,

International customers and users of disposable or prepaid phones are the people most affected by the software.

This technological “vulnerability” shows how companies throughout the technology supply chain can compromise privacy, with or without the knowledge of manufacturers or customers.

It is not clear whether this represents secretive data mining for advertising purposes or a Chinese government effort to collect intelligence.

But, it reveals one way that Chinese companies — and by extension the government — can monitor cellphone behavior

My initial reaction: not a shocker … wonder if any Apple (or somebody else) will bring some manufacturing back to the U.S. to avoid security-threatening practices like this cellphone breach.

The next day, a seemingly unrelated story hit the wires …

Read the rest of this entry »

College: Making Freshman year (almost) free …

November 22, 2016

Let more students earn AP credits by putting “boilerplate” courses online and beefing-up certification testing.

========

A recent article posted on Real Clear Politics caught my eye.

The author Steven Klinsky, is credentialed as a businessman and education reformer, chairman of Harvard’s Public Education Policy Group and founder of the Modern States Education Alliance (MSEA).

He observes that (1) traditional brick & mortar colleges are increasingly unaffordable, (2) that “the tuition cost for many online courses has been set every bit as high (or sometimes higher!) than for the same course delivered in the physical classroom” and (3) that increasingly popular MOOCs can deliver quality content but no college credits—just “certificates of completion”.

So, as a private citizen and philanthropist, Mr. Klinsky has been trying to “square the circle” with MSEA’s “Freshman Year for Free” program.

image

How does Klinsky and MSEA plan to do it?

Read the rest of this entry »

City elites ask: what’s up with those rural bumpkins?

November 21, 2016

One of the big divides in the Presidential election was the urban-rural split.

======

Rural communities have over 95% of the land mass; cities have more than 60% of the population.

Clinton carried the cities by 31 points; Trump carried the rural areas by 29 points; the suburbs were a push

According to The Daily Beast:

“Rural counties now deliver lopsided totals for Republicans that approach Democratic tallies in African-American neighborhoods.”

image

==========

What the heck is going on?

Read the rest of this entry »

A view from the North …

November 18, 2016

Canadians considering a wall on their southern border.

=======

According to Canadian news reports …

The flood of Trump-fearing American liberals sneaking across the border into Canada has reached a fever pitch since the election.

Canadian border residents say it’s not uncommon to see dozens of sociology professors, liberal arts majors, global-warming activists, and “green” energy proponents crossing their fields at night.

image

========

There has been an escalating exodus of left-leaning Americans who fear that they’ll soon be required to pray, pay taxes, live according to the Constitution and maybe even hunt.

Some case studies reported by Canadian residents are downright shocking …

Read the rest of this entry »

Did data analytics miss the forest for the trees?

November 17, 2016

Team Clinton’s GOTV effort got out a lot of votes … for Trump

======

huffpost-big-data-clinton

According to the Huffington Post:

As the post-election day hangover wears off, an examination of the mechanics behind the Clinton’s get out the vote efforts ― reaching out to Clinton voters in key states at the door, on the phone or by text messages ― reveals evidence of what appears to be a pretty shocking truth.

Clinton volunteers were inadvertently turning out Trump voters.

Possibly in significant numbers.

What went wrong? Read the rest of this entry »

Ouch: 2016 MBA Rankings

November 16, 2016

MSB down 8 slots to #34

=======

Here are the top 10 … and MSB … with ranking details.

image

==========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

=========

Shocker: NFL to revamp scoring system …

November 16, 2016

Total net yards gained to determine game winners – not TDs, FGs and PATs.

=======

You may have missed this last week in the emotional aftermath of the election, but amid a sharp drop in TV ratings …

The NFL rules committee voted to fundamentally change the game’s scoring rules …. the ones that determine the winners and losers of games.

image

In a nutshell, the team that gains the most yardage during a game will be declared the winner.

All yards gained will be counted – passing, rushing, kick & interception returns.

Penalty yardage will be deducted from a team’s total.

Team’s will get 10 bonus yards for each “classic” point scored … 60 yards for a TD, 30 yards for a FG, etc.

========

Here’s how Commissioner Roger Goodell defended the rules change …

Read the rest of this entry »

Peggy Noonan denies it, but she saw it coming …

November 15, 2016

She grabs the pulse of America and lays it out there for all to read.

========

Loyal readers know that I’m a big Peggy Noonan fan.

She sees things that other people don’t see … until it’s too late.

image

Here’s what Noonan had to say in her post-election column: What Comes After the Uprising

Donald Trump said he had a movement and he did.

This is how you know.

His presidential campaign was bad—disorganized, unprofessional, chaotic, ad hoc.

There was no state-of-the-art get-out-the-vote effort—his voters got themselves out.

There was no high-class, high-tech identifying of supporters — they identified themselves.

They weren’t swayed by the barrage of brilliantly produced ads — those ads hardly materialized.

This was not a triumph of modern campaign modes and ways.

The people did this. As individuals within a movement.

Trump supporters are overwhelmingly citizens of good will and patriotic intent who never deserved to be deplored as racist, sexist, thuggish.

It was a natural, self-driven eruption.

Which makes it all the more impressive and moving.

And it somehow makes it more beautiful that few saw it coming.

While says modestly that she didn’t see it coming, I beg to differ.

Here’s the proof …

Read the rest of this entry »

New normal: More able-bodied men sitting on their duffs …

November 13, 2016

Forget ‘Labor Force Participation Rate’ …  here’s the indicator to watch

========

It’s no secret that the Labor Force Participation — the % of able bodied adults who are employed or looking for work —  has dropped about 4-1/2 percentage points .

image

=======

The economy-is-doing-just-fine crowd chalks the declining rate to demographics – old-timers retiring.

In prior posts I’ve attributed about 1/3 to retirees … the rest to slackers.

To that point, let’s cut the data a different way …

Read the rest of this entry »

Score one for the Little Sisters of the Poor …

November 12, 2016

Remember when the Obama DOJ decided to go after the Little Sisters of the Poor?

We posted about the law suit in January 2014:  Let’s have a little fun with the nuns …

Looking back, it may have been a defining moment for some folks.

Sicking the IRS on the Tea Party was one thing …

Going after the Little Sisters, though, was a visible, and mobilizing metaphor.

Let’s flashback ….

======

When I heard the news report, I thought it was a joke.

The full force of the DOJ is being thrown at, believe it or not …

THE LITTLE SISTERS OF THE POOR.

Not just nuns, “little” nuns.

Not just little nuns, little nuns who dedicate their lives to God and spend every waking hour praying or caring for the poor.

Not just little nuns who care for the poor, little poor-caring nuns who are, on average, probably about a hundred years old.

These are the nuns who are literally icons for the helpless.

So much so that weak sports teams – like those on Georgetown’s early season basketball schedule — have forever been referred to as representing The Little Sisters of the Poor.

Those Little Sisters of the Poor.

image
Source

What’s the government’s beef?

Read the rest of this entry »

Flashback: Over 100 million “hard workers” are now jobless or “working scared”.

November 11, 2016

Trump’s target constituency was identified by 2 liberal academics … who laid out the case, but drew the wrong conclusion.

======

Bottom line: Roughly 75% of the U.S. labor force (i.e. 100 million people) have been personally affected by or deeply concerned about joblessness:

Originally posted on May 15, 2016 titled “What do tenured profs & Federal judges have in common?“

=======

A permanent job with good benefits is (now) beyond reach for most American workers … only federal judges and tenured professors are insulated from the forces of workforce transformation”

That’s according to the authors of the book Working Scared (Or Not at All): The Lost Decade, Great Recession, and Restoring the Shattered American Dream

======

The book Working Scared is focused on the ways that the American workplace has changed in the past 50 or so years … and the implications on American workers (and non-workers).

clip_image002
=======

The central premise of the book is that globalization (out-sourcing & off-shoring); de-industrialization (towards more services and knowledge-based); technology-intensity (computers, internet, robots); and de-unionization have shattered the American Dream for tens of millions of working adults who are struggling or poor … “despite working hard and playing by the rules.”

More specifically …

Read the rest of this entry »

The issues that divided the electorate …

November 11, 2016

Trump supporters: Illegal immigration, terrorism and job opportunities.

Clinton supporters: Gun violence, income inequality, college affordability and climate change.

image

========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

========

Flashback: Revenge of the unintelligensia?

November 11, 2016

Will “uneducated” voters determine the 2016 Presidential election?

Originally posted July 20, 2016

=========

The most recent Washington Post poll – showing Hillary leading Donald by a couple of points — provides some very interesting drill down data … it’s worth some browsing time.

Buried in the numbers is some interesting data…..

======

MSM headlines frequently stereotype Trump’s supporters as non-college degreed whites … and often, the label is shorthanded as a more pejorative “uneducated”, i.e. mind-numbed dummies.

According to the WaPo poll, it’s true that Trump is favored by “white non-college” almost 2-to-1 … 60% to 33%

clip_image002

=======

No surprise there …

But, here are some findings that did surprise me a bit since they never gets spotlighted in the mainstream media…

Read the rest of this entry »

Flashback: Trump’s appeal among the “precariat”…

November 10, 2016

And, there are over 100 million of them.

Originally posted March 1, 2016

========

From a very interesting election analysis in the Orange County Register by Joel Kotkin – Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University …

Disclaimer: I’m not a Trump fan because of his incivility (bad role model for kids), unpredictability (I have no idea where he really stands on any issue except “the wall” – and I’m betting the under on that one), and temperament (though I wonder why the U.S. should be the only country that doesn’t have a wild man with their finger on the nuclear button – why not round out the roster?).

That said, I’ll fill in his circle on the scantron ballot if it’s Trump vs. Hillary in Novemeber.

Why?

I have much sympathy for his constituency of victims: lower and middle class working class folks … with emphasis on “working”.

You know,  the folks that the press likes to brutally characterize as “brain dead, mindless zombies”.

clip_image002

=======

In his article, Mr. Kotkin more charitably coins them as the “precariat” — people who are working, many part time or on short-term gigs, but lacking long-term security.

Read the rest of this entry »

Sea of red: the county by county electoral map …

November 10, 2016

Trump won a majority of votes in the vast majority of counties.

image

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

Flashback: What if Trump gets elected and acts like Obama?

November 10, 2016

What goes around, comes around.

Here’s what we posted March 8, 2016:

======

There was a “must read” opinion piece in the Washington Post .

The article was penned by left-leaning GWU law professor Jonathan Turley

clip_image001

Turley has long been warning that Dems may think it is clever and appropriate when Obama circumvents the Congress and courts to implement his partisan policies, but that they should be forewarned that what goes around, come around.

Specifically, he says:

Democrats have supported President Obama’s claims of unchecked authority in a variety of areas.

Obama has been particularly aggressive in his unilateral actions.

From health care to immigration to the environment, he has set out to order changes long refused by Congress.

Thrilled by those changes, supporters have ignored the obvious danger that they could be planting a deeply unfortunate precedent if the next president proves to be a Cruz rather than a Clinton.

While the policies may not carry over to the next president, the powers will.

The Obama model will be attractive to successors who, although they may have a different agenda, have the same appetite for unilateral decisions.

Here are some specifics that he cites:

Read the rest of this entry »

Flashback: Was Trump inspired by the 1972 Cuban Olympic boxing team?

November 9, 2016

Originally posted August 19, 2015 … a bit ahead of its time.

=========

Many of you may be too young to have witnessed and remember, but…

In the 1972 Olympics, the polished U.S. boxing team was predicted to sweep the competition.

But, something happened on the way to the medals’ platform that shocked the sporting world.

image

======

Here’s the story and why Trump jogged my memory of the 1972 Olympics …

Read the rest of this entry »

About the massive voter turnout …

November 9, 2016

The big story last night sure wasn’t a record-setting turnout.

Trump drew about 2 million fewer votes than Romney did in 2012.

Some GOP stayed home; others drifted to Johnson.

The big headline is that Clinton got about 10 million fewer votes than Obama did in 2008 … and, about 6 million less than he got in 2012.

image

==========

Thanks to SMH for feeding the lead.

=========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

==========

A pollster who nailed it …

November 9, 2016

An unconventional technique found Trump’s “hidden” support.

=======

In a pre-election poll, the Trafalgar Group conclude that Trump had hidden support from an additional 3 percent to 9 percent of voters who didn’t want to reveal their true opinions to pollsters.

The company is betting its future by publicly testing — at its own expense — its own methods.

Trafalgar’s CEO Robert Cahaly says:

“On Wednesday, I’m either going to be guy who got it right, or nobody is going to listen to me anymore.”

                    Monday, November 7, 2016
clip_image001

Trafalgar’s polls are unconventional, designed to capture opinions from people who otherwise avoid lengthy interviews on the phone.

Here’s how they do it …

Read the rest of this entry »

Man against machine … Man wins !

November 9, 2016

image

image

=======

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

========

Since 1912, this model has only mis-called one Presidential elections…

November 8, 2016

I just wanted to get this one onthe record before the polls close.

=========

Helmut Norpoth, a political-science professor at Stony Brook University, has a Presidential election model that is largely driven by how well a candidate did in his/her party’s primary elections.

clip_image002

Before you chuckle … Norpath’s model has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1912, with the exception of 2000.

Earlier in the year, Norpoth predicted an 87% chance that Trump would prevail since he vanquished 15 competitors (winning NH & SC) –while Clinton tight tussled Bernie Sanders (losing both NH &SC).

Now, despite the plethora of polls showing Clinton ahead by at least 3 percentage points, Norpoth is sticking by the results of his model

He says: “If [Clinton] was leading by 10 or 20 points, I would say this is not going to be my year, but I don’t see it. It’s so close. It’s certainly do-able [for him], even when you look at the polls.”

Norpoth will “certainly have bragging rights if he’s right,” since just about everyone else is calling the race for Clinton.

Source

=========

No one can ever accuse Prof. Norpoth of “herding” – the tendency of forecasters go with most popular prediction.

========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

========

How many eligible citizens turnout to vote?

November 8, 2016

What’s the “mix” by party affiliation?

=========

By diving deeper into the widely varying polls, the obvious became evident to me.

By and large, the polls get about the same same answers by ‘type’ of voter … e.g. about 90% of voters throw their support behind their party’s candidate.

So, the variance in ‘headline’ numbers is almost entirely attributable to party-affiliation ‘mix’ – the proportion of voters from each party that are expected to turnout to vote.

Polls assuming that many more Dems will vote than GOPs say that Hillary is up by 4 or 5 points; polls that say there will be about an equal number of Dems & GOP turning out narrow the difference or give the edge to Trump.

Given that this will be a turnout election, I dove a bit deeper into voting trends, just to get some historical context for this election.

=========

For openers, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center

In 2012, there were about 219 million citizens eligible to vote … 57.5% (126 million) of them did vote.

Note that 1960 was the high-water mark (64.8%), not 2008 (62.5%).

And, note that 2012 was down about 5 percentage points from 2008.

image

This year, most pundits are predicting that about 130 million will vote.

Clinton is trying to stir enthusiasm to hold together the Obama coalition; Trump is counting on an increase in the number of working-class voters.

=========

Now, lets’s look at the partisan mix – the factor that will determine this year’s election….

Read the rest of this entry »

Election Day: Final Election Polls

November 8, 2016

LA Times: Trump +3

IBD: Trump +2

Media Herd: Clinton + 3.3

Nate Silver: Clinton + 3.6

Monmouth College: Clinton + 6

==========

L.A. Times Tracking: Trump + 3

clip_image002

==========

IBD: Trump + 2

clip_image004

========

Media Herd: Clinton + 3.3

clip_image006

=========

Nate Silver 538: Clinton + 3.6

clip_image008

clip_image010

==========

Monmouth University: Clinton +6

clip_image011

===========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

=========

IBD: “Trump lead widens to 2”

November 7, 2016

Reminder: IBD was the most accurate poll in 2012.*

=========

Sub-headline: “His biggest lead yet”

Nit-pick: More precisely, it’s 2.4 points

Partisan split: Roughly equal representation of Democrats, Republicans and Independents

Noteworthy: Still over 5% are “not sure”

image

=========

* According to Nate Silver:

image

Sunday polls: Pick your favorite …

November 6, 2016

There’s a poll for everybody today … pick one that confirms your biases.

========

WaPo: Clinton +4 

Turnout: Dems +7 (Dems 37%, GOP 30%, Independents 29%)

image

=======

IBD: Trump +1 

Most accurate in 2012

Turnout: +3 (Dems 37%, GOP 34%, Independents 29%)

Turnout assumption differences fully account for differences in IBD and WaPo

image

========

LA Times: Trump +6

Statistically significant: outside the margin of error

4th most accurate in 2012

No turnout assumptions reported

image

========

Nate Silver: Clinton +3

Clinton 2 to 1 favorite to win.

image

image

=======

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

========

Poll watching: A tale of 2 polls …

November 6, 2016

Here are the numbers to keep your eye on …

=========

In yesterday’s post, we highlighted how sensitive “headline” poll results are to the assumed party-affiliation mix of voters.

Let’s add another piece to the puzzle: there are 2 sets of data that have to be closely watched when trying to make sense of the polls:

(1) the assumed party-affiliation mix of voters, and

(2) the survey-determined voter preferences by party affiliation.

I know that’s common sense … what I didn’t realize is how much those numbers vary from poll-to-poll.

To illustrate the point, let’s look at 2 polls: FoxNews (presumed to lean right) and Washington Post – ABC (presumed to lean left).

The most recent Fox poll had the race as essentially a dead heat … slight Clinton lead.

image

=========

A recent WaPo poll had Clinton up by a couple of points.

image

=========

OK,let’s play around a bit with the numbers …

Read the rest of this entry »

Nums: Somebody explain this gender gap thing to me …

November 5, 2016

The numbers just don’t square with the narrative.

=======

OK, I understand the simple explanation:

Clinton can make history as the first woman President.

Trump is a crude billionaire playboy.

Women are sensible and sensitive.

Men are … well they’re men.

So, it makes sense that Trump leads by 11 points among men … and Clinton leads by 13 points among women.

image
FoxNews Poll Nov. 4

==========

But, digging a little deeper into the numbers, things get a bit confusing…

Read the rest of this entry »

Nums: Let’s look at turnout math …

November 5, 2016

Very small changes in the Dem / GOP mix make a YUGE difference.

=======

A recent WaPo poll had Clinton over Trump by 2 points.

Naturally, voter preference varied by self-proclaimed party affiliation:

Clinton got 86% of of the Dem vote; Trump got 88% of the GOP vote.

Independents went 47% to Trump and 40% to Clinton.

image

WaPo weighted their sample 37% Dems, 30% GOP and 29% Independents.

In concept that weighting should represent WaPo’s best guess as to the mix of voters on election day.

Some pundits argue that WaPo’s aggregate tally over-weights towards Dems.

Maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t. We’ll know in a couple of days.

For today, let’s just play around with the numbers to demonstrate how critical the turnout assumptions are …

Read the rest of this entry »

Silver: Breach in Hillary’s blue firewall ?

November 4, 2016

Trump’s chances are up to about 1 in 3, according to Dem-darling pollster Nate Silver.

image

=========

And, looking at the race’s dynamics, Silver see’s some red flags:

There’s been a potential breach of Hillary Clinton’s electoral firewall.

And it’s come in New Hampshire, a state that we said a couple of weeks ago could be a good indicator of a Donald Trump comeback because of its large number of swing voters.

Three new polls of New Hampshire released today showed a tied race … other recent polls of New Hampshire still show a Clinton ahead. But the race has clearly tightened in New Hampshire, with Clinton leading by only 2 to 3 percentage points in our forecast.

If Clinton lost New Hampshire but won her other firewall states, each candidate would finish with 269 electoral votes, taking the election to the House of Representatives.

Or maybe not — if Clinton also lost the 2nd Congressional District of Maine, where polls show a tight race and where the demographics are unfavorable to her, Trump would win the Electoral College 270-268, probably despite losing the popular vote.

==========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

========

Is Virginia in the bag for Hillary?

November 4, 2016

Based on recent history, I think not.

========

Yesterday we posted results from a Hampton College poll that had Trump pulling to within 3 points of Clinton … after trailing by double digits just a week or so again.

image

I have no idea whether Hampton College polls are credible, or not.

But, the most recent results brought to mind the 2014 Senate race between incumbent Democrat Mark Warner and former RNC head Ed Gillespie.

As Nate Silver put it:

Everything favored Warner.

He’d raised considerably more money than Gillespie and won overwhelmingly in 2008.

Gillespie — while an experienced political hand as the former head of the Republican National Committee — had never run for public office before.

Source

Right before the election, the polls had Warner up by about 9 points.

Gillespie was closing, but the gap was big.

image

========

So, what was the outcome?

Read the rest of this entry »

Poll: Trump up by 3 in Virginia

November 3, 2016

From the pollsters at Hampton College:

image

The latest Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP) poll reveals that the FBI’s decision to reopen the Hillary Clinton email investigation may have triggered a boost for Donald Trump with likely voters in Virginia.
  
Democratic Presidential nominee Clinton had a two point lead before the email news story broke on Friday Oct. 28.

She is now trailing three points behind Republican Presidential nominee Trump.

Trump has erased a 12 point deficit reported by the CPP in early October. 

This is the first time Clinton has trailed in the CPP polls this year.

The latest poll was conducted Oct. 26-30.

When Virginians were asked if the election were held today, 44 percent of those surveyed would vote for Trump and 41 percent would choose Clinton,

==========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

=========

Why the FBI probe will take some time (if DOJ does squash it) ….

November 3, 2016

The lingering question is “intent”.

=========

Let’s connect a couple of dots today …

I’ve been wondering why Comey re-opened the email investigation, why it will take awhile to resolve itself, and what the outcome will be.

A couple of occurrences brought things into focus for me.

=======

First, my son and I were chatting about how the Clintons always push to the legal edge of the law (or further), but don’t leave many fingerprints… and certainly no smoking guns.

I opined that they’re like the mob bosses who direct activities with ambiguity and deniability.

You know, like the “it would be too bad if he had an accident” line used to order a hit.

=======

The 2nd occurrence was Obama weighing in on Comey yesterday for being premature in issuing his letter and reprimanding that “it’s not the way we do things around here.”

image

Hmmm.

How do “we” do things around here?

=======

Got me thinking back to Comey’s July non sequitur ruling: she broke the law … no direct evidence of intent … so, no charges.

Since then, it has become clear that the law in question does not require proof of intent.

To the contrary, it was written so that intent would be immaterial

So, where did Comey get the idea?

Read the rest of this entry »

Are Catholics (finally) finding religion?

November 2, 2016

Trump is leading by 9 points among Catholics.

======

A few weeks ago, WikiLeaks posted some emails in which senior Clinton staffers disparaged Catholics,

At the time I wondered if the disses would be a wake-up call to Catholic.

Apparently, the answer is “yes”

Trump has now opened up a sizable lead with Catholics … and with Protestants (which I assume includes Evangelicals)

catholics-finding-religion

======

Just in case you missed it, here’s our original post that covered the purloined emails:

The Last Acceptable Prejudice …

One of the WiliLeaks — that didn’t get much attention —  caught my attention:

Clinton’s senior staffers exchanged several emails that mocked the Catholic church, referring to it as a Middle Ages dictatorship”.

Hmmm.

Raises a couple of questions …

Read the rest of this entry »

Poll Shocker: Trump up by 6 in LA Times tracking poll …

November 2, 2016

IBD: dead heat  …  WaPo: Trump +1

=========

LAT: Trump +6 … beyond the 95% confidence level

image

=========

IBD: Race tied

image

=========

WaPo-ABC: Trump +1 (was Clinton +12 last week)

image

=========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

=========

WaPo Poll: Republicans are “coming home”

November 1, 2016

… and, some Dems are jumping ship.

=========

A snippet from the WaPo’s poll analysis:

Consolidation for Trump within his own party has been one part of the post-FBI dynamic:

Trump has gone from a low of 82 percent support among Republicans early in the tracking period to 89 percent now, his high.

Clinton, meanwhile has gone from a high of 90 percent support among Democrats to 87 percent now.

The latest results mark the first time in tracking that Trump has had numerically higher support among Republicans than Clinton’s among Democrats, 89 vs. 87 percent.

Adding in ideology, the tracking poll shows Clinton going from 95 percent support among liberal Democrats early in the tracking poll to 88 percent now.

Trump’s gone from 89 percent among conservative Republicans to 94 percent now.

=========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

=========

NY Times: FBI clears Trump of Russian ties …

November 1, 2016

… and, says Russian hacking intended to disrupt election, not boost Trump

========

Trying to shift attention off Weiner’s email stash, Team Clinton started flashing the Russian shiny object yesterday:

You know, Trump and Putin are in collusion.

Well, even the Dem newspaper of record – the NY Times – concedes that there’s no “there” there.

image

Here’s the relevant snippet from the Times article …

Read the rest of this entry »

RCP: Trump closes to 2.4 points

November 1, 2016

HomaFiles poll-of-polls: dead heat.

============

image

=======

HomaFiles (HFS) tracks IBD (most accurate in 2012), LA Times (4th most accurate in 2012)  and WaPo (adds balance from the left) …

HFS average: dead heat.

image

==========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

=========

When will Obama pardon Clinton?

November 1, 2016

… and a couple of other pivotal questions.

======

Disclaimer: I’m not an attorney and don’t offer legal advice …. just personal opinions and an occasional fact!

========

Pivotal Questions

1) To Hillary: Will you accept the results of the election?

Of course, she has to answer to the affirmative since she blasted Trump for insinuating that the election might be rigged.

Funny when the shoe is on the other foot …

But, you can bet that she’ll fight the results tooth-and-nail if she loses.

========

2) To Hillary: Will you accept the FBI’s decision to indict (or not)?

Hmm.

Likely answer: I’ll continue to cooperate with the FBI, and will continue to vigorously defend my innocence.

========

3) Legal question: Once elected, can Clinton be indicted?

Not as straightforward as it sound.

According to former Judge Andrew Napolitano (Libertarian, Fox contributor, matriculated at Princeton when I was there):

Civil actions against a President can be pursued during a President’s tenure (e.g. Paula Jones vs. Bill Clinton), but criminal charges are suspended until a President leaves office.

image

My read: If elected, she can be indicted between now and Inauguration Day …. but, after being sworn in, she can’t be indicted until she leaves office … either voluntarily or involuntarily (2-terms, voted out or impeached)

========

4) To Hillary: If elected and then indicted, will you pardon yourself?

It is her legal right to pardon herself, whether or not an indictment is handed down.

That is, she can pro-actively issue a pardon to herself to stop proceedings and avert a prospective indictment.

Of course, such a pardon is likely to cause political repercussions, hinder her Presidency and taint her legacy.

========

5) To Hillary: If elected and then indicted, will you resign?

Answer: “You gotta be kidding”

========

6) To Obama: Will you pardon Clinton and her posse?

Likely answer: I have faith in their innocence and the legal system … blah, blah, blah.

Real answer: Of course I will.

========

7) To Obama: If you do pardon Clinton, when will you do it?

My bet: 4 scenarios ….

If Trump takes a sizable lead in the next couple of days, Obama will do nothing and hang Hillary out to dry.

If  Hillary takes a lead, Obama will count on the Dem turnout machine and do nothing … until the election is complete.

If Trump takes a significant lead, Obama will swing for the fences and pardon her this week “for the good of the country”.

If Hillary gets elected, Obama will immediately pardon her … again, “for the good of the country”.

If Hillary doesn’t get elected, she’s on her own.

========

8) Legal question: Can Congress continue to investigate emailgate regardless of the FBI decision or results of the election?

You bet … a GOP controlled Congress will continue to dog Clinton if she gets elected … but let it drop if Trump wins.

========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

========

LA Times: Trump +4 post-FBI announcement.

October 31, 2016

The LA Times poll – 4th most accurate in 2012 – had the race tied a week ago.

Now, it’s Trump 47, Clinton 43 …

image

==========

#HomaFiles

Follow on Twitter @KenHoma            >> Latest Posts

=======