What would your boss say if your project estimates were off by a factor of 3 or 4?

Probable Answer: “You’re fired!”

Not so in ObamaLand …

There, bossman would be ordering pizza for the victory celebration.

Let’s look at the facts …

Flashback to March 2010, when Obamacare was being steam-rolled though Congress.

At that time, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that Obamacare would cost $938 billion over a decade, that the Federal deficit would shrink and 19 million uninsured people would be insured as of 2014.

As a frame of reference, those estimates work out to be about $5,000 in annual cost per newly insured person … about par for private market medical insurance.

 

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Unfortunately, but predictably, those estimates were wildly off the mark …

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Two years later in 2012, the Supreme Court declared Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion to be unconstitutional as written, and the CBO adjusted its projection for the number of uninsured accordingly.

It projected that Obamacare would reduce the number of uninsured by 14 million as of 2014.

At the same, the CBO re-estimated ObamaCare’s 10-year cost to be $1.677 trillion — up a whopping 80% — $739 billion more than the 2010 projection.

That’s about $12,000 in annual cost per newly insured person – up 240% from the 2010 estimates – and more than double the cost of private market coverage.

Ouch.

And, that’s not the end of the story …

In  February 2014, the CBO projected that Obamacare’s 10-year cost would blow past $2 trillion … and stopped even trying to project the impact on the Federal budget deficit.

In April, the CBO reduced its estimate of newly insureds to only 12 million.

That get’s us up to about $17,000 ($16,666 to be precise) annual cost per newly insured person – more than triple the 2010 estimates and the cost of private market coverage.

Triple ouch.

Now, according to the Weekly Standard, “the Urban Institute finds that Obamacare has actually reduced the number of uninsured adults by 8 million since the rollout began last fall. Gallup shows a similar number.”

If that’s true, we’re up to an eye-popping $25,000 annual cost per newly insured person.

Tell me again why the Washington spendmeisters didn’t just pass out $5,000 insurance vouchers and call it a day …

#HomaFiles

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One Response to “What would your boss say if your project estimates were off by a factor of 3 or 4?”

  1. John Milnes Baker Says:

    There’s probably one-third of the American population that still think – oops not “think” – they don’t do that – They believe that whatever Obama says is gospel. I’d be curious to know how many friends and family who voted for him would do so again. I’m tempted to ask but they’ve either figured it out by now – or they haven’t. So I’ll keep peace and continue to avoid the subject – unless they bring it up in which case they’ll get an earful.
    — John Milnes Baker

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