Despite record high Dow … I’m still a bear.

Yesterday was a day of stock market joy … the Dow hit a new high water mark.

Since halving itself during the financial crisis, the market has more than doubled … recouping its losses … and more.

But, what about the the technical factors … just reading the charts.

Yesterday, we posted the red section below … and asked the question: see the pattern?

To me, looks like we’re approaching a cyclical peak.

image

Today, look at the black line … and the trend line that I’ve added.

The chart deflates the S&P 500 … adjusting for inflation.

Hmmm.

Looks like the real value of the S&P 500 has been trending down for the past 15 years or so.

Think we’ll defy the trend line and keep heading up?

I’m betting the under.

* * * * * ?

Disclaimers:

  1. I don’t give investment advice … I just observe stuff.
  2. I’m on record having predicted a significant market drop during Obama’s 2nd term

I’m still holding my ground.

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One Response to “Despite record high Dow … I’m still a bear.”

  1. theresatingelhoff Says:

    Thanks first bit of common sense I have heard in days Now could ya please call Fox and CNBC, cause I have had it with the fluff and spin they are spewing. (I could not resist) I am selling my riskier stocks and going back to the basics. The basic stock with a history of solid dividends, positive operating cash flow and earnings growth.
    I will sleep much better, and can stop listening to all this craziness!

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