Archive for April 9th, 2012

For Sale: Best-seller books … Price: $8 per kilo, hardcovers extra.

April 9, 2012

In one of my classes we study how books are priced.

Last fall, a team suggested that page count was a relevant criteria … that books with more pages should be priced higher than shorter books.

I summarily rejected the idea and joked at the team’s expense.

Well, the page has turned.

The team just returned from China and sent me me this picture.

image

 Lo and behold, in China, they encountered book stores that sold books based on their weight.

A counterfeit version of the Steve Jobs biography (above) weighed in at 360 grams, and was priced by weight at 18 RMB ($2.85). Roughly 50 RMB ($8) per kilo.

The team tells me that all paperback books in that particular shop (located on Nanjing road, main street Shanghai) are sold at this rate; hardcovers are also priced  by the kilo but at a higher rate.

OK guys, you get the last laugh.

Thanks to Ash Kaluarachchi & Greg Berguig for feeding the lead

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‘Tis the season …

April 9, 2012

… or more precisely:  ‘tis the seasonality.

For a couple of months, we’ve been pointing out that something smelled fishy about the Fed’s employment reports.

Too much of the good news seemed to be directly tied to statistical tweaks of the the raw data called “seasonal adjustments”.

In fact, the Feds have been goosing the numbers up by more then they used to.

Well, now the Wash Post is even on the case.

The Post article — “Mild winter may have artificially inflated jobs data, economists fear“ —  suggests that we may have been underestimating the effect.

Economists are now saying that the mild winter has artificially inflated job growth.

Translation: The surge in hiring early in the year may not be as strong as it appeared.

The warm weather meant more jobs for construction workers and retail employees.

For economists, it means a statistical nightmare.

Typically, these bumps in demand are evened out through a process called seasonal adjustment.

That allows researchers to compare one month’s economic activity with the next for a more accurate picture of the nation’s health.

But this year’s weather was so abnormal that those models fell short, and economists are now scrambling to figure out how much of the growth over the past three months was simply due to a glitch in their systems.

“When the weather does not follow a normal seasonal pattern, then the seasonal adjustment cannot adjust for it.”

And that may help explain why recent data on jobs have looked rosier than actual economic growth would suggest.

Forecasts for the nation’s gross domestic product during the first quarter hover around 2 percent, a middling number at best.

Somewhere there is a disconnect, and Mother Nature is a valid scapegoat.

The labor market boost from the mild winter will eventually even itself out, though it may mean dips in job growth in coming months

Glad to see the mainstream media catching up with the Homa Files and its loyal readers …

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